Monday, February 25, 2013

The BC Autopsy: 09-10 - Draft, extend, repeat

The Raptors’ struggle to slip into the 2008 playoffs, followed by a 33 win season, readjusted the expectations of the trajectory supposedly set by 2007. By June of 2009, Bryan Colangelo was in full damage control. While some GMs take these opportunities to pare down costs, load up on draft picks and bide their time until the conditions for success reveal themselves, Colangelo took the other approach--tape over the holes and sneak back into the playoffs so that his reputation would remain intact.

Okay, maybe that is over-editorializing . What I must concede is that if the roster quality was as good (but maybe unlucky or dragged down by the turmoil of the Ford/O’Neal/Marion transition) then perfunctory hole-filling is perfectly reasonable, even responsible. I truly believe you can improve rosters to contenting status with small adjustments and not just be beaming in “superstars” as per conventional wisdom. But this is activity saved for a manager who has an honest assessment of his assets and Colangelo’s track record, three years in, did not induce enough confidence in such skills.

June 9 2009
Traded forward Jason Kapono to the Philadelphia 76ers for forward Reggie Evans.

Colangelo begins his summer agenda with another bafflingly productive transaction. Like the Hoffa-for-Hump trade of years back, the GM dumps a no-longer-NBA talent with a heavy contract in Kapono for rebounding specialist in Evans. Evans sat out most of that season with an injury but played significant minutes the following season. It is hard to think of a player who came more “as advertised” than Reggie Evans. He was (and still is) an instinctive rebounder who uses his body to take board positions as opposed to using athleticism (to which he has zero). This skill, honed by the best rebounders of all time (Dennis Rodman, Ben Wallace, Charles Barkley) allows a player to eat up rebounds well into their mid-30s. His defence (when on display in 10-11) was not elegant but he showed a willingness to put his body in front of a post player and refuse to move in way not performed by a Raptor since Charles Oakley. In short, Reggies Evans was a lot better at rebounding than Jason Kapono was (at that point) at shooting threes. Everyone, pull a pin out of your Colangelo voodoo bobblehead.

Draft 2009
Selected guard DeMar DeRozan (9th overall pick).


I still haven’t quite figured out if the NBA triumvirate of front offices/media/fans collectively place too much value on draft picks or not enough.

Arguments that draft picks are the better than chocolate and sex and chocolate sex:

  • The opportunity to draft the next “superstar” for wildly too little money for many years (with even tighter, team-friendly restrictions in every new CBA): remember that in 2007, when LeBron James put that straggly team of Ira Newbles on his back and took the Cavs to the NBA Finals, with a 27/7/6 season slashline, he earned less than $6 million
  • Over and above the muted salaries, each team gets a “fair” opportunity to acquire a player who otherwise might not want to sign with a team for whatever reason. Take Kyrie Irving: What are the chances, if rookies entered the league as free agents, that the Cavs could have signed him?
  • Future draft picks can be traded with no mind to salary implications which allow teams to construct fairer (or executable) trades in the face of very restrictive salary-swapping rules
Arguments for the opposite, vanilla celibacy:

  • There are no fewer guaranteed contracts handed out in bad draft years
  • Empirically, the triumvirate seem to project 30+ draftees as significant contributors when that simply has never played out. Don’t believe me? Go look up draft briefs and comparables of a dude named Reece Gaines. I’ll wait
  • GMs suffer from various cognitive biases that can result in overvaluing their own draft picks (once drafted). See: Bargnani, Andrea
  • Though I believe there is skill involved in assessing players to draft or at least the relative value of the draft pick, many GMs seem incapable of extracting value. I suppose this is an advantage for some and disadvantage for other
There’s a growing, decent body of research around the NBA draft that you should for sure go Google. Also, read the first heading in this.

Digressions abounding, what does this mean for DeMar DeRozan? I’ve tried as best I could to curb incredulous bashing of Colangelo’s draft picking. I believe he is a poor drafter but that his draft picks (considered in a vacuum from his overall decision making) is not a serious enough drag on the team’s performance. Even the loss to world happiness that was the Andrea Bargnani pick was recoverable (and if you believe that is the end of that, don’t read on).

So, perhaps it is more significant that the Raptors only came back to first round of the draft for the second time (functionally) in Colangelo’s tenure, here. And perhaps there was some old rule-of-thumb about how late first round picks were a soupy puddle of crap and that Colangelo’s intentions were always to participate only in the lottery. Perhaps.

2009 turned out to be a deep draft, with interesting players up and down, including a pile in the second round (DeJuan Blair, Chase Budinger, Danny Green). I remember wanting to draft Ty Lawson as the Raps had lived through a season where Will Solomon and Roko Ukic played backup point guard. But I never claimed to have much drafting skill. If I was drafting for an NBA team, I’d probably grab the best rebounding percentage player in Division 1 year after year. So, if it was DeMar, then it was DeMar. The Raptors surely needed help at shooting guard after the demise of Anthony Parker.

As a rookie, DeRozan liked to dunk and showed promising rebounding ability. His shot selection worsened as the years went on and he’s devoid of respectable defence or passing skills. He can get to the line with reasonable reliability. Was taking him with the 9th pick super destructive? No because I think the actual picks are less important with how you treat the player when their rookie contract comes up. Speaking of which...

July 8 2009
Signed forward Andrea Bargnani to a contract extension.


THIS! This is the thing. After three seasons, Bargnani had hit the magic 17 points-per-game line that Colangelo obviously bases all his eight figure salary decisions. He could have said “this is a very flawed player with a questionable future in the NBA as anything other than a Vladamir Radmanovic-like 12th man” and either offered a contract for less than half the dollars and years or sign-and-traded him to some other, enamoured team.

But instead, bidding against no one but his own demons, Colangelo offered No Mago a five year/$50 million extension to which the Raptors are not even halfway through (accounting for backloading). I mean, hot damn, this was destructive. If the trade for O’Neal was supposed to incentive Chris Bosh to stay in Toronto, this extension lubricated to slide all the way down to South Beach. In a salary cap environment, this move was inconceivably destructive, seeming to do nothing but justify Colangelo’s investment in Andrea by tripling down.
To put this in perspective, at the time this extension was signed, Boston had yet to tender an offer to Rajon Rondo. Yes, Andrea Bargnani created the comparables market for Rajon friggin’ Rondo! If Colangelo had merely allowed Bargnani to become a restricted free agent and waited for him to sign an offer sheet, he could have kept his little pet for a fraction. Or, you know, let him walk, take the cap space.

If the Raptors amnesty Andrea Bargnani (a decision I have been debating with myself for more than a year) and he never plays another NBA minute for another team (certainly possible) he will have made $70 million from this franchise. Now, imagine the team had instead donated all that money to the TTC. I’d be riding the 510 hovercraft home from work.


July 9 2009 Traded forwards Shawn Marion and Kris Humphries, center Nathan Jawai and cash to the Dallas Mavericks for guard Antoine Wright and forward Devean George; traded cash to the Orlando Magic for forward Hidayet Turkoglu.


When was the last time you heard someone call him “Hidayet?” Colangelo’s July wheel-and-deal fun time kept rolling with this tasty piece of self-satisfaction.

Now, this was recorded as a trade but it was really a sign-and-trade to get free agents to their final destinations for prices above the mid-level exception. If you’ll recall, Hedo Turkoglu forsake a handshake deal with the Trailblazers because his wife and he fell in love with the quiet, clean avenues of the Big Smoke and its Little Istanbul neighbourhoods, *swoon*.

Revisionists will tell you that Turkoglu was coming off a career season in Orlando but that’s not quite true. Hedo’s career season was actually in 07-08, where he broke out as the legitimate second option to an emerging Dwight Howard who initiated an offense of pick-and-rolls and passes out to Rashard Lewis in the corner. Turkoglu faded to the background in the 08-09 edition of the Magic, the 59-win team that surprised the defending Celtics and Lebroning Cavs to face the Lakers in the NBA Finals. Turkoglu was at his best when he focused on playmaking and shot from catch-and-shoot or kick-outs but he insisted on pursuing his own iso agenda, possibly believing that would be the key to getting paid. But he made a few big shots in the playoffs and hit the free agent market with plenty of suitors.

When Hedo showed up to training camp fat and extemporaneously slogged through the early part of the season, the Internet quickly turned on him. I could argue that the signing was boneheaded, expensive (5 years, $53 million) and mistimed (committing all this money to a team that was more than likely losing its biggest asset at the end of the year) and I’d be exactly right. But I’ll maintain that Turkoglu was only mildly disappointing. Yes he was flabby and cranky and committed to defence with all the enthusiasm of Andy cleaning the dining hall but he was also very much the same player he had been the year before (and three and four seasons before that) with a lot less shot opportunities. I mean, the guy bitched that he wasn’t being used correctly because he was not initiating the pick-and-rolls and moving the ball laterally in half court sets--and he was exactly right! It turned out that the Raptors did not need all that playmaking in their offence but then why get Turkoglu? He’s a decent three point shooter but for that price, you expect to pair him with some out-of-control combo guard for balance. A recurring theme in this Colangelo saga: a lack of ‘why?’ to back up the ‘what?’

At this point the Raptors could have had TJ Ford playing backup point guard, a handful of draft picks plus heaps of salary cap space but instead Colangelo chose to pay Marcus Banks $4.5 million to eat Doritos on the bench. #justsayin’

July 21 2009
Signed guard Jarrett Jack.
July 13 2009
Signed guard Jarrett Jack to an offer sheet.

I’ve waited until now to talk about the Jose Calderon extension, which was signed a year earlier. The assholes and idiots who talk about this team enjoy bringing up this 5 year/$45 million contract as the prototype symbol of the Raptors’ futility. They are wrong and should be punished. Calderon has earned every cent of this contract and continues to earn it on the Pistons. One of the greater passers of all time (with no hyperbole) and a terrific shooter, Jose was derided for his shotty defence (fairly) and some type of shortcoming of instinct that was believed to keep up these ridiculous “point guard controversies.” Let’s remember that:


  • The first “controversy” surrounded Calderon taking minutes away from the perceived top guard, TJ Ford
  • The second one, Jarrett Jack, lasted half a season, was tied to an injury and guess what? Calderon’s play barely dropped off. He brought scoring to the so-called second unit and provided an interesting small-ball lineup to use when he played alongside Jack and mercifully sit some dude you don’t remember named Antoine Wright
  • The third was this season, when Kyle Lowry was brought in with the explicit plan to trade Calderon
I truly believe Calderon would have got the same contract on the open market. I believe that after every season, he was still worth whatever was left and would make the same on the open market. I believe that you cannot honestly look at the (larger) contracts handed out to Bargnani and Turkoglu or the fact that Rudy Gay is owed more money by the Raptors for the next two-and-a-half years than Jose Calderon has made in his career and deride his contract. He was/is a tier-two point guard and that’s what tier-two point guards get paid. Ty Lawson will make $12 million a year when his extension kicks in. I GOT YOUR BACK, JOSE! ESSSSSSPPAAAAANNNNNOOOLLLLLAAAA!!!!

Jarrett Jack? It was somewhat surprising that Colangelo opted to use the mid-level exception on a second point guard and not on a centre who was capable of shivving Bargnani in the shower but Jack’s “aiight.” After the dismal backup play from the season previously, it was imperative to buy some competency in the backcourt. It’s a-okay to spend money on a second point guard, really it is, unless you are lucky enough to employ a Chris Paul/Tony Parker/Westbrook/Derrick Rose/Rajon Rondo (then again...) type who can play 4o-a-game. Jack, a friend of Chris Bosh’s for whatever that was worth, made poor shooting decisions but was willing to drive the basketball, could run plays effectively and allowed Calderon to play catch-and-shooter in Bosh post-up plays. Though he’s been up-and-down, Jack is still getting paid from this contract as the super sixth man on a playoff-bound Warriors team. Mark Jackson uses Steph Curry in the Calderon roll as Jack feeds David Lee/Andrew Bogut. He’s still earning his money.

I chalk much of the Raptors’ improvement from 08-09 to 09-10 to Jarrett Jack replacing Solomon/Ukic, with the rest of the praise landing on an inspired season from Chris. But, of course, Colangelo had no intention of keeping Jack (or Turkoglu). The Raptors barely missed the playoffs and Chris Bosh prepared to trade in his maple syrup for Coppertone.

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