I'm an F-minue-minus?

I'm a Bill Simmons fan. I've read both his books (even lugging the 700 page Book of Basketball around Central America in a backpack) I've read the columns for five or six years and I catch the podcast when I can. I really like his stuff. But (surprised there's a 'but?') the guy is completely and irrationally hostile to basketball statistics. And Carmelo Anthony has become the de rigeur "pure scorerererer" poster boy for why nerds live in their parent's basement. So for the next few hundred words, Bill, we're not friends.

PEOPLE WHO DON'T REALIZE THAT CARMELO IS A LEGITIMATE SUPERSTAR: F-minus-minus

One of the strangest subplots this week: Everyone rushing to pick Carmelo's game apart, especially people who rely on advanced metrics and ended up getting caught up in small-picture stuff. Carmelo has one elite skill (he rebounds extremely well for a small forward) and one transcendent skill (he's as good as anyone in the league at scoring and/or getting to the line, especially in crunch time). You can absolutely, positively, unquestionably win a championship if Carmelo Anthony is your creator at the end of a basketball game. The Knicks didn't have anyone like that. Few teams do.




I guess, it's true. Anthony is a decent rebounder. Slightly better than Wilson Chandler  but not as good as, say, Matt Barnes. I'd be better convinced if he grabbed a few more offensive boards, but I will give it up. Good rebounder. We're agreeing. This is good. I'm a fan, remember?




But he's a transcendent scorer? We're really still talking "scorer?" It's 2011. The dude takes 20 shots a game, makes 45% of them. Taking 20 shots is a transcendent skill? Enough of this shit. He's a good player, above average. But transcendent scorer? LeBron James is a transcendent scorer. Dwight Howard is a transcendent scorer (he just does it from within 3 feet), Anthony's just okie dokie.




And please give me a motherfuckin' break on this crunch time thing. We've all seen the stat by now that says Carmelo is the numero uno "crunch time" shooter, he shoots 2% better than the #2 guy, Chris Paul. At 47%, he shoots closer to a respectable rate trailing by two or less with 24 seconds left in the game. And what's the sample size on this study? 21 shots on 44 attempts. So, we're talking 2 games worth of shots for Carmelo and three misses away from his average clip. Did Bill miss the point of that article? I'll summarize thusly: run your normal offence in crunch time, if you play the triangle -- run it. The bullshit about crunch time is based on some (wait, I already used "bullshit") cowcrap that the one-on-three isolation plays Kobe adores are stupid, stupid strategy. Carmelo Anthony's transcendent skill is being King of the Stupids? What else, Bill?


Now throw this in: He's only 26.

True. We're probably in the midst of his peak. I would venture to guess he will not decline in the next three years he's extended. We agree again! Score! We can be friends again soon!


Now throw this in: Ten guys started the 2011 All-Star Game. In a 30-team league, the Knicks suddenly have two of them.


Billllllll!!!! I mean, Billlllllll!!!!!! Bill, the fans voted Amar'e and Carmelo into that game. You want to give me an F-minus-minus because I may take issue in the integrity of fan voting for the All Star game? Yao fucking Ming.



Now throw this in: The other players know. They know who's good. They know who's worth a damn. They know who they'd go to war with. So you can't discount (A) how well Carmelo played on the 2008 Olympic team; (B) how much the other guys respected him; and (C) how the key guys on that team were Kobe, LeBron, Wade and Carmelo. It can't be forgotten. It just can't. Neither can the fact that he nearly carried a limited Nuggets team to the Finals two years ago.




There's so much flowery yet vague praise here I need to sit down for a minute... But I think we can thank the Billups for Iverson trade for the strength of that team. Anthony, whether you look at important stats or go-to-war stats like PPG, had an off-year in 08-09. Blarg?


Now throw this in: If there was ever a player who could be ignited by a great basketball city and a consistently fantastic crowd, it's Carmelo Anthony. He's been stuck in a relatively icy cruise control for two solid years, playing in a city he didn't totally love, being professional about it, trying hard every game ... and yet, there was something detached about him. No longer. I hate how he weaseled his way to the Knicks and pissed on Denver fans, but that's over. Let's look at this thing objectively: He's going to kill it with the Knicks. I'd bet anything. 



To anyone who honestly and sincerely thinks players play better because the crowd in New York will, in some measurable way, enjoy basketball more than Denver fans, I have a fantastic investment opportunity you don't want to miss.


They haven't had someone like this since Bernard King, which is funny because I always thought Melo was Bernard 2.0. Playing in New York isn't for everyone, but in this case, it will be the best thing that ever happened to Carmelo Anthony.


Bernard King? Please make an Alex English, Bob McAdoo or Iverson comparison to complete the universe.



I keep hearing that you can't win a title with Melo and Amare. Agreed. But you can win the title with Carmelo, Amare and Chris Paul (or Dwight Howard, or Deron Williams).


This argument reminds me of watching breakfast cereal commercials as a kid. You know, the "Cap'n Crunch is part of complete breakfast!" ones where they show the cereal box next to a piece of toast, a grapefruit, and a glass of orange juice? Carmelo, you are Cap'n Crunch!


In the short term, you can make some noise, rock the building and make Knicks fans forget about the 10 excruciating years they just endured. And you can scare the living hell out of the fans from the other Eastern contenders. Believe me, as a Celtics fan, I want no part of the Knicks this spring for one reason: You never want to play a playoff series in which the other team has the best guy. There's a decent chance Carmelo could just go off 1984 Bernard-style in Round 1 or Round 2. I'm crapping my pants just thinking about it. Over everything else, THAT is why they had to make this trade. A week ago, the Knicks were a .500 team. Now, they matter. And if you're throwing stats at me, I'll counter with this one: 15 for 15. Thank you and please drive through.


They're still a .500 team. Maybe .520? Again, thanks in large part to your friend Chauncey. Bill, you know stat-hate leads to wrinkles AND unintentional comedy.  I'm worried about your skin and your catchphrases. I'm a fan!!!!!!!!!!

Stealing blog gimmicks, the epitome of class

So this blog is on hiatus -- that's what my last post said, right? Right. But I've been reading a lot (A LOT) of drunkjaysfans recently as the prospect of the impending baseball season is the only light at the end of the proverbial tunnel of ice, sleet and Raptor embarrassment. Stoeten does this great thing where he answers Richard Griffin's mailbag questions, answers unseen.

And since this blog has a monthly readership of -3 people (okay, maybe a few spam bots looking for email addresses to peddle misspelled erectile dysfunction pills) and there's nothing on TV but Justin Bieber tributes, I'm diving into the Doug Smith mailbag. If this doesn't work out, I promise to send you a pithy Valentine as compensation.

Q: Hi Doug. I hope you don't mind a non-Raptors question about a certain star coach in the news: Jerry Sloan.



Most of the talk surrounding him is that he's lost the confidence and ears of his players, but it seems obvious to me that he's quitting now, so that he'll have a better chance to win by replacing Phil Jackson when he retires.
So with all your insight on the league, I ask you: Is this truly Jerry Sloan's swan song, or is he just setting himself up for the best chance at a championship?


Thanks a-plenty

Charlie D, Montreal

I'm not sure why Charlie D (love your strip club, by the way) thinks DS has any insight here. Maybe Jerry Sloan was tired of babysitting petulant millionaires who'd never been coached until they landed on the Jazz, maybe he wanted more time to bird watch. Insofar as coaches can be "good" I think Sloan passed the test. His teams consistently won, despite the fact that they play in Utah and many of their fans wear magic underwear.


The flex offense encourages inside play, passing and a lack of stupid shit that leads to turnovers. The Jazz would have probably been awesome this season if it weren't for the fact that Deron Williams is the only NBA-calibre guard on that team.  Sorry, what was the question? Is Jerry Sloan going to stalk the Lakers job? Let's say no, okay Charlie?  Now pump some Def Lepperd, I have a pocket full of loonies I can't wait to deposit in Josiee's g-string.








[Skipping trivia questions. Have Smitty's readers yet to discover Google?]

Q: Hey Doug! Read the blog every day and always enjoy when you let us know of different anniversaries of the day. I was just wondering though, when is the Raptor Blog's Birthday? More importantly, is it what you thought it would be when you first envisioned it?

We appreciate all the hard work Doug!

Steve T, Ajax

Glad to see Super Son finally got one of his questions in the mailbag. Why the pseudonym, "Steve" from "Ajax? If this blog were to have a birthday, I nominate Remembrance Day (Veteran's Day in the US) because if you read it for too long, you may consider enlisting for combat. 

 Oh wait, I'm supposed to cross out Doug's name and pretend these questions were addressed to me. Fuck. I knew I'd mess this up.

No, "Steve," when daddy started writing this pile of goat shit, I never believed the Toronto Star and you, dear readers, would ever let him carry on this long. For shame.

[Some long-winded soliloquy disguised as a question that I couldn't bear to read to the end. Shit, the next one's even long-windier. I can't skip two in a row. Goddamn]

Q: Hey Doug. I posted this in the comments this week and you didn't have time to answer then so I thought I'd try again here, as this is likely a better place to ask this kind of question. And since they will have just left town, it rates as somewhat timely:

Brandon Roy is poised to return to action for Portland, and the fact the Trail Blazers have posted a winning record in his absence, prompted me to look up their current active roster to see if it was readily apparent why their record is significantly better than the Raptors. They have experienced a similar injury profile this season (worse over the last couple of years) to the heart of what was supposed to be a promising young team. When I look at the Blazers rotation made up of LaMarcus Aldridge, Wes Matthews, Nic Batum, Joel Przybilla, Andre Miller, Rudy Fernandez and Patrick Mills it really makes me wonder how they've managed. I think if you concede that LaMarcus Aldridge is better than Bargnani (which is debatable, but for the sake of this comparison I'm willing to do) I'm still hard-pressed to see that rotation as appreciably better than the Raps.

So first, between the Blazer group or the Raptors current 8 man rotation which do you think is better?

And second, to what would you attribute the relative success of these Trail Blazers, given their injury woes and having to play in the Western Conference.


Richard E, Toronto 

Is Richard in Toronto on E? I know I'm not supposed to peek at Doug's answers but I did so fuck you. Doug chalks the Blazers success up to experience followed by big-gameness followed by coaching. Good show, old boy!

Here's the deal, Dick E: LaMarcus Aldridge is the Blazers third-best centre this season (and fourth-best if you take a longer view). Andre Miller has never, ever, ever had an unproductive season, Nicholas Batum is better than any swing the Raptors have employed since the first season of Anthony Parker and they have MOTHERFUCKING MARCUS CAMBY!!! (tm)

Hey, Rich. If you're going to make a snide, "Andrea Bargnani is better than..." quip and the end of said quip isn't "Earl Barron" you should probably shut your MDMA-popping, phallicly-named mouth.

[More trivia. I am not joking]

Q: Hi Doug, this isn't a Raptors question but a Kevin Garnett question. I just read he cursed out Spike Lee at a Knicks game. He allegedly made comments about Charlie V being a cancer patient early in the year and a couple of weeks ago he punched a guy in the groin during a game.

Is there any kind of cumulative action discipline in the NBA for this type of behaviour

It seems like no one wants to say anything bad or do anything about KG.

Jeff F, Toronto


Yup. Garnett's totally a douche.


[You won't believe this but more trivia]






Q: Hey Doug. Karl Malone was on NBATV discussing Coach Sloan's abrupt departure, when he mentioned that he wants to carry on Jerry Sloan's coaching legacy. Chauncey Billups has also expressed interest in a front office job with the Nuggets. What level star do you have to be before you can just start asking management for those coveted jobs. Do you think it affects coaches and scouts and GM's who put in years before they reach any position of real importance?


Tilak J, Buffalo


The real question is do you feel comfortable putting your favourite team's precious cap space in the hands of Chauncey Billups as he does battle with top NBA agents? I thought the whole point of NBA TV was to give these guys "jobs" and keep them out of important, possibly team-killing positions.




Q: I have followed the team for many years but the expectations have hit an all time low. Since this season seems to have gone South what would be the best way to go in the draft? Assuming no work stoppage/top 4 pick, trade down and go for volume or keep the top pick and hope for a difference maker? I know you think it's way to early but it's been that type of year.


John P, Vernon Hills




Vernon Hills sounds mostly made up, John P. Did your town once have an outstanding season and sign an ass-gapingly disgusting contract? Doug has a history of excellent draft insight so I feel almost bad I'm not reading his answer to this one. Okay, we're assuming a decently high draft pick? And, I suppose, assuming King Colangelo is still pillaging and plundering this team?


Obvious disclaimer is I follow very little college basketball and know shit-all about any of the prospects this year. So I'm speaking only from an understanding of the history of shoot-from-the-hip drafting and assurances this year's crop is going to be poor due to the lockout.


Here's what Bry Bry wants to do. Draft a European. He'll be a jump-shooting, 6'10 four, despite the fact that the only position with depth on the Raptors is PF. This draftee's career will mimic Yi Jianlian's, yet BC will sign him to a max extension and the Raps will not win a playoff game until 2023. DraftExpress is indicating a Swiss-born, currently ineligible Kentucky player, Enes Kanter, may fit the description.


Here's what the Raptors should do:


Option 1) Clear, no-brainer pick at our draft position who actually projects to be an NBA player, not some chuckster who happened to get to the Sweet Sixteen. If the player plays anything but PF, keep him.


2) Trade down. Learn how to draft for value and draft the next Landry Fields... Okay, when you've stopped laughing at the prospect of BC learning, we can continue. We have immediate needs at the two, three and five. Offer Andrea Bargnani to anyone for anything. I'd trade him for a sesame seed bagel. Even a poppyseed bagel.


3) Package that sexy, high draft pick for some players, even if it's to sweeten a deal to send DeRozan, Kleiza, Barbosa or Bargnani out. Hey Andre Iguodala, I'd bet you'd love Tim Hortons!


Three strategies. No chance of any of them being employed.


[Well, fuck the heck. There's, like, 16 more bullshit trivia questions and I have to go to sleep. This was a bad idea. Valentines are in the mail.]