Friday, February 25, 2011

I'm an F-minue-minus?

I'm a Bill Simmons fan. I've read both his books (even lugging the 700 page Book of Basketball around Central America in a backpack) I've read the columns for five or six years and I catch the podcast when I can. I really like his stuff. But (surprised there's a 'but?') the guy is completely and irrationally hostile to basketball statistics. And Carmelo Anthony has become the de rigeur "pure scorerererer" poster boy for why nerds live in their parent's basement. So for the next few hundred words, Bill, we're not friends.


PEOPLE WHO DON'T REALIZE THAT CARMELO IS A LEGITIMATE SUPERSTAR: F-minus-minus

One of the strangest subplots this week: Everyone rushing to pick Carmelo's game apart, especially people who rely on advanced metrics and ended up getting caught up in small-picture stuff. Carmelo has one elite skill (he rebounds extremely well for a small forward) and one transcendent skill (he's as good as anyone in the league at scoring and/or getting to the line, especially in crunch time). You can absolutely, positively, unquestionably win a championship if Carmelo Anthony is your creator at the end of a basketball game. The Knicks didn't have anyone like that. Few teams do.




I guess, it's true. Anthony is a decent rebounder. Slightly better than Wilson Chandler  but not as good as, say, Matt Barnes. I'd be better convinced if he grabbed a few more offensive boards, but I will give it up. Good rebounder. We're agreeing. This is good. I'm a fan, remember?




But he's a transcendent scorer? We're really still talking "scorer?" It's 2011. The dude takes 20 shots a game, makes 45% of them. Taking 20 shots is a transcendent skill? Enough of this shit. He's a good player, above average. But transcendent scorer? LeBron James is a transcendent scorer. Dwight Howard is a transcendent scorer (he just does it from within 3 feet), Anthony's just okie dokie.




And please give me a motherfuckin' break on this crunch time thing. We've all seen the stat by now that says Carmelo is the numero uno "crunch time" shooter, he shoots 2% better than the #2 guy, Chris Paul. At 47%, he shoots closer to a respectable rate trailing by two or less with 24 seconds left in the game. And what's the sample size on this study? 21 shots on 44 attempts. So, we're talking 2 games worth of shots for Carmelo and three misses away from his average clip. Did Bill miss the point of that article? I'll summarize thusly: run your normal offence in crunch time, if you play the triangle -- run it. The bullshit about crunch time is based on some (wait, I already used "bullshit") cowcrap that the one-on-three isolation plays Kobe adores are stupid, stupid strategy. Carmelo Anthony's transcendent skill is being King of the Stupids? What else, Bill?


Now throw this in: He's only 26.

True. We're probably in the midst of his peak. I would venture to guess he will not decline in the next three years he's extended. We agree again! Score! We can be friends again soon!


Now throw this in: Ten guys started the 2011 All-Star Game. In a 30-team league, the Knicks suddenly have two of them.


Billllllll!!!! I mean, Billlllllll!!!!!! Bill, the fans voted Amar'e and Carmelo into that game. You want to give me an F-minus-minus because I may take issue in the integrity of fan voting for the All Star game? Yao fucking Ming.



Now throw this in: The other players know. They know who's good. They know who's worth a damn. They know who they'd go to war with. So you can't discount (A) how well Carmelo played on the 2008 Olympic team; (B) how much the other guys respected him; and (C) how the key guys on that team were Kobe, LeBron, Wade and Carmelo. It can't be forgotten. It just can't. Neither can the fact that he nearly carried a limited Nuggets team to the Finals two years ago.




There's so much flowery yet vague praise here I need to sit down for a minute... But I think we can thank the Billups for Iverson trade for the strength of that team. Anthony, whether you look at important stats or go-to-war stats like PPG, had an off-year in 08-09. Blarg?


Now throw this in: If there was ever a player who could be ignited by a great basketball city and a consistently fantastic crowd, it's Carmelo Anthony. He's been stuck in a relatively icy cruise control for two solid years, playing in a city he didn't totally love, being professional about it, trying hard every game ... and yet, there was something detached about him. No longer. I hate how he weaseled his way to the Knicks and pissed on Denver fans, but that's over. Let's look at this thing objectively: He's going to kill it with the Knicks. I'd bet anything. 



To anyone who honestly and sincerely thinks players play better because the crowd in New York will, in some measurable way, enjoy basketball more than Denver fans, I have a fantastic investment opportunity you don't want to miss.


They haven't had someone like this since Bernard King, which is funny because I always thought Melo was Bernard 2.0. Playing in New York isn't for everyone, but in this case, it will be the best thing that ever happened to Carmelo Anthony.


Bernard King? Please make an Alex English, Bob McAdoo or Iverson comparison to complete the universe.



I keep hearing that you can't win a title with Melo and Amare. Agreed. But you can win the title with Carmelo, Amare and Chris Paul (or Dwight Howard, or Deron Williams).


This argument reminds me of watching breakfast cereal commercials as a kid. You know, the "Cap'n Crunch is part of complete breakfast!" ones where they show the cereal box next to a piece of toast, a grapefruit, and a glass of orange juice? Carmelo, you are Cap'n Crunch!


In the short term, you can make some noise, rock the building and make Knicks fans forget about the 10 excruciating years they just endured. And you can scare the living hell out of the fans from the other Eastern contenders. Believe me, as a Celtics fan, I want no part of the Knicks this spring for one reason: You never want to play a playoff series in which the other team has the best guy. There's a decent chance Carmelo could just go off 1984 Bernard-style in Round 1 or Round 2. I'm crapping my pants just thinking about it. Over everything else, THAT is why they had to make this trade. A week ago, the Knicks were a .500 team. Now, they matter. And if you're throwing stats at me, I'll counter with this one: 15 for 15. Thank you and please drive through.


They're still a .500 team. Maybe .520? Again, thanks in large part to your friend Chauncey. Bill, you know stat-hate leads to wrinkles AND unintentional comedy.  I'm worried about your skin and your catchphrases. I'm a fan!!!!!!!!!!

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