Backing up all the way to the beginning, one of the greatest moves Colangelo ever made was convincing the world he didn’t exists... I mean, not re-signing Mike James. If you remember, James, an NBA journeyman, put himself in position to go after a multi-year contract after making a considerable impression with a 27-win Raptors team in 05-06.
Now, collective memory has settled on a myth that James was some awful chucker, taking advantage of a piss-poor team to showcase individual skills and call in radio talk shows, perhaps intoxicated. While true his shot selection and playmaking abilities would ebb and flow and that he played typical Toronto point guard defence (none) but James was a highly effective offensive player on a fifth rank offense (and a 29th ranked defence. We all love to pontificate on players who can “create their own shot” and for that entire season, Mike James was that player. He regularly faced double teams as a result and, while not a gifted passer, was able to feed Bosh in the post and find a suite of shooters that included Charlie Villaneuva, Mo Peterson and Matt Bonner.
The key issue was, this breakout season happened to James at age 30 and with a rare opportunity to dominate the ball (25% usage rate) and eschew defence (and mental health._ All reasonable signs pointed to an unrepeatable performance and so by allowing James to take his talents to St. Paul, Colangelo signalled a possible savvy edge. James didn’t disappoint by disappointing and faded to obscurity as he continued to bounce around the league.
As an epilogue, Mike James is currently coming off the bench for the Dallas Mavericks at age 37. Guards not currently in the NBA include: Tracy McGrady (33), Baron Davis (33) and Gilbert Arenas (31).
Friday, February 15, 2013
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
The BC Autopsy: 07-08. Sh*t'll be comin' round the mountain
And... we’re back. After a tumble up the relevancy ladder and a flourish of accolades, Mr. Colangelo armed himself with a mandate to splurge. The core, set with Bosh, Bargnani, Nesterovic, Ford and Calderon, needed a complement of role players if they were to parlay regular season success into playoff wins.
May 22 2007
Signed head coach Sam Mitchell to a contract extension.
Naturally, co-credit for super season goes to COY, Sam Mitchell. A timeless, flawless coaching performance that enshrines Mitchell a place in the NBA coaching pantheon for ever and ever and ever and ever and...
June 15 2007
Traded two future second-round picks to the Detroit Pistons for forward Carlos Delfino.
The draft picks turned out to be Jonas Jerebko and Kyle Singler. I have no analysis -- I just felt like sharing. My memory of Delfino is fairly fuzzy which usually signals benign uselessness. His shot choices were awful but he was able to shoulder defensive assignments and play a little point guard in a pinch. I’ve watched him more recently driving to the basket, perhaps picking up a thing or two from Jeremy Lin. A great big shoulder shrug. Here, watch this.
July 11 2007
Signed forward Jason Kapono and signed forward Maceo Baston to an offer sheet.
July 10 2007
Signed forward Jamario Moon.
I’ll get to Moon at his exit interview...
Before the saga of Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Kapono was the free agent whipping boy that began to turn attentive minds against the consensus sanctity of Colangelo’s genius. Kapono, you may remember, was the sharpshooting specialist coming off a big season with the Heat, where he had averaged 11-a-game on better than 50% three-point shooting. Everyone needs one of those, right? Colangelo agreed, buying high with a four year, $24 million contract.
Pundits will remind you, with little prompting, not to overpay for role players if you want to do fun things like raise banners in an NBA arena. Beyond the truism, the real question was, could a season of receiving passes out of double teams and knocking down a historical clip of threes be considered a rising trend? With no apparent market to bid against (the first tragic flaw of Colangelo’s teamcraft philosophy) the Raptors made their first big splash in the free agent market since Hakeem Olajuwon and announced to the world... that they had signed a shooter.
Upon closer inspection, Kapono’s shooting ability was real but his deftness at any and every other aspect of the NBA game quickly raised all of the red flags. Literally, every single flag. For a team already struggling to play NBA defence (“J’accuse!” Mnsrs. Calderon, Ford, Bargnani, Bosh) Kapono’s still smooth shot was drowned out by the deficits in the rest of his game. Kapono seemed to develop a case of the yips as he was much more reluctant to even take the shots he was being paid to take. He course corrected, somewhat, the following season with more attempts, but when his clip fell back down to earth and it became clear he was just too unreliable to keep on the floor, BC was left with two years and $14 million owed to what was increasingly looking like a very good NBDL player. Oops.
July 30 2007
Named Masai Ujiri director of global scouting.
I miss that guy.
February 21 2008
Traded guard Juan Dixon to the Detroit Pistons for center Primoz Brezec.
I really miss that guy (Brezec, not Dixon)
This was a boring season, transactionally. Injuries to Ford and Bosh exacerbated a regression towards the mean (a fringe playoff team) and the onslaught of the new-look Celtics to the emerging Magic, still alive Pistons and the elevation of LeBron James from good to “holy shit” marked a turning point: the Raptors were about to slide down a great big hill of poop with Bryan Colangelo holding the poop-sled reins.
May 22 2007
Signed head coach Sam Mitchell to a contract extension.
Naturally, co-credit for super season goes to COY, Sam Mitchell. A timeless, flawless coaching performance that enshrines Mitchell a place in the NBA coaching pantheon for ever and ever and ever and ever and...
June 15 2007
Traded two future second-round picks to the Detroit Pistons for forward Carlos Delfino.
The draft picks turned out to be Jonas Jerebko and Kyle Singler. I have no analysis -- I just felt like sharing. My memory of Delfino is fairly fuzzy which usually signals benign uselessness. His shot choices were awful but he was able to shoulder defensive assignments and play a little point guard in a pinch. I’ve watched him more recently driving to the basket, perhaps picking up a thing or two from Jeremy Lin. A great big shoulder shrug. Here, watch this.
July 11 2007
Signed forward Jason Kapono and signed forward Maceo Baston to an offer sheet.
July 10 2007
Signed forward Jamario Moon.
I’ll get to Moon at his exit interview...
Before the saga of Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Kapono was the free agent whipping boy that began to turn attentive minds against the consensus sanctity of Colangelo’s genius. Kapono, you may remember, was the sharpshooting specialist coming off a big season with the Heat, where he had averaged 11-a-game on better than 50% three-point shooting. Everyone needs one of those, right? Colangelo agreed, buying high with a four year, $24 million contract.
Pundits will remind you, with little prompting, not to overpay for role players if you want to do fun things like raise banners in an NBA arena. Beyond the truism, the real question was, could a season of receiving passes out of double teams and knocking down a historical clip of threes be considered a rising trend? With no apparent market to bid against (the first tragic flaw of Colangelo’s teamcraft philosophy) the Raptors made their first big splash in the free agent market since Hakeem Olajuwon and announced to the world... that they had signed a shooter.
Upon closer inspection, Kapono’s shooting ability was real but his deftness at any and every other aspect of the NBA game quickly raised all of the red flags. Literally, every single flag. For a team already struggling to play NBA defence (“J’accuse!” Mnsrs. Calderon, Ford, Bargnani, Bosh) Kapono’s still smooth shot was drowned out by the deficits in the rest of his game. Kapono seemed to develop a case of the yips as he was much more reluctant to even take the shots he was being paid to take. He course corrected, somewhat, the following season with more attempts, but when his clip fell back down to earth and it became clear he was just too unreliable to keep on the floor, BC was left with two years and $14 million owed to what was increasingly looking like a very good NBDL player. Oops.
July 30 2007
Named Masai Ujiri director of global scouting.
I miss that guy.
February 21 2008
Traded guard Juan Dixon to the Detroit Pistons for center Primoz Brezec.
I really miss that guy (Brezec, not Dixon)
This was a boring season, transactionally. Injuries to Ford and Bosh exacerbated a regression towards the mean (a fringe playoff team) and the onslaught of the new-look Celtics to the emerging Magic, still alive Pistons and the elevation of LeBron James from good to “holy shit” marked a turning point: the Raptors were about to slide down a great big hill of poop with Bryan Colangelo holding the poop-sled reins.
Thursday, February 7, 2013
The BC Autopsy: 2007 Interlude -- Do you remember this NBA?
It’s important to remember what the league was like in 2007 if we are to properly put the record-tying win total and divisional title in perspective--and move on in our retrospective. Of course, you have to suspend your disbelief that a six-game-over-.500 division title and subsequent disposal from the playoffs is the second-most exalted feat in franchise history (after that other one that ended with a *clank*)
Pre-season favourites in the Eastern Conference were, by consensus, the defending Heat and the perennially-contending Pistons. The Heat, having staved off the Dallas Mavericks with a start-turning performance by Dwyane Wade and a healthy dose of referee interference, limped into the ‘07 playoffs, barely, thanks to injuries to Wade and O’Neal (and the empirical evidence that Shaq was no longer Shaq -- he would be traded to the Suns for an unhappy Shawn Marion part way into the next season).
Detroit’s descent was more interesting if you prefer narratives about motivation and intangible intangibles. After a half decade of no-star, all chemistry “team” teams, peaking with the ‘04 championship, that nucleus was, evidently, slipping. The acquisition of Chris Webber, (and to a much lesser extent, Nazr Mohammad) was supposed to fill the void left by the cash-chasing departure Ben Wallace, and allow this Pistons incarnation to continue to contend. Detroit grinded out a mediocre (by their standards) 53 win season amid calls of complacency or in-fighting or chemistry issues. There was an assumption that the core veterans (Billups, Hamilton, Prince, RWallace, McDyess, Webber) would turn it on for the playoffs but a streaking Cavs team, led by an emergent LeBron James (and significant contributions by future Hall-of-Famers Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden and Sasha Pavlovic) plus a dose of whatever deity commissioned this, contributed to a downright dominant, if unimpressive, NBA Finals that saw the been-there-done-this Spurs barely break a sweat against Cleveland.
The rest of the East? An in-their-own-way intimidating Arenas/Butler/Jaimeson-era Wizards team; a lifeless Nets team that “upset” Toronto with a little veteran savvy from an otherwise disinterested Jason Kidd; a still-recovering-from-the-Malice Pacers; Isaiah-infected Knicks and the rest of the league (like, the Celtics and Sixers) putting on their best Tank Face for the Oden/Durant draft sweepstakes.
Within a year, Jason Kidd and Pau Gasol would be on new teams and pundits would declare the NBA dark days to be over.
So let’s remember, collectively, that in 2007, the Toronto Raptors exploited a power vacuum to temporarily rise from mediocrity to baseline competency. Pinning your wistful nostalgia on an award winning executive (and coach) only exacerbates our current pain. Free yourself from such shackles of the mind. Let us heal.
(The Autopsy to continue...)
Pre-season favourites in the Eastern Conference were, by consensus, the defending Heat and the perennially-contending Pistons. The Heat, having staved off the Dallas Mavericks with a start-turning performance by Dwyane Wade and a healthy dose of referee interference, limped into the ‘07 playoffs, barely, thanks to injuries to Wade and O’Neal (and the empirical evidence that Shaq was no longer Shaq -- he would be traded to the Suns for an unhappy Shawn Marion part way into the next season).
Detroit’s descent was more interesting if you prefer narratives about motivation and intangible intangibles. After a half decade of no-star, all chemistry “team” teams, peaking with the ‘04 championship, that nucleus was, evidently, slipping. The acquisition of Chris Webber, (and to a much lesser extent, Nazr Mohammad) was supposed to fill the void left by the cash-chasing departure Ben Wallace, and allow this Pistons incarnation to continue to contend. Detroit grinded out a mediocre (by their standards) 53 win season amid calls of complacency or in-fighting or chemistry issues. There was an assumption that the core veterans (Billups, Hamilton, Prince, RWallace, McDyess, Webber) would turn it on for the playoffs but a streaking Cavs team, led by an emergent LeBron James (and significant contributions by future Hall-of-Famers Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden and Sasha Pavlovic) plus a dose of whatever deity commissioned this, contributed to a downright dominant, if unimpressive, NBA Finals that saw the been-there-done-this Spurs barely break a sweat against Cleveland.
The rest of the East? An in-their-own-way intimidating Arenas/Butler/Jaimeson-era Wizards team; a lifeless Nets team that “upset” Toronto with a little veteran savvy from an otherwise disinterested Jason Kidd; a still-recovering-from-the-Malice Pacers; Isaiah-infected Knicks and the rest of the league (like, the Celtics and Sixers) putting on their best Tank Face for the Oden/Durant draft sweepstakes.
Within a year, Jason Kidd and Pau Gasol would be on new teams and pundits would declare the NBA dark days to be over.
So let’s remember, collectively, that in 2007, the Toronto Raptors exploited a power vacuum to temporarily rise from mediocrity to baseline competency. Pinning your wistful nostalgia on an award winning executive (and coach) only exacerbates our current pain. Free yourself from such shackles of the mind. Let us heal.
(The Autopsy to continue...)
Sunday, February 3, 2013
The BC Autopsy: (05-06 &) 06-07
I thought it’d be different. Bryan Colangelo would have been run out of town for Isiah Thomas-level incompetence leading him to quickly sign as General Manager for EA7 Emporio Armani Olimpia Milano. But, it hasn’t happened yet. Instead, our fearless leader, president and svengali has been endowed, somehow, with more lives than cat jumping a green mushroom. So, somewhat disruptively, taking this trip down memory lane may be a little premature. But, here you have it: what we’re calling the BC Autopsy: a bitter review of all major transactions overseen by our namesake, Mr. Colangelo. We’ll go season-by-season and hope to finish this retrospective within seven years, or so. You know, about the time that Colangelo is named Chairman of Maple Leafs Sports, Entertainment and Sadistic Torture (MLSEST).
A word of warning... please don’t read this series of posts. Go outside and play with your kids. Bake a cake. Pick up an oil-of-deer-antler habit. Do something productive. This has been constructed purely for the cynical, the maniacal and the pathetic. This is a virus that I genuinely hope you don’t catch. For the rest of you lowlifes, on to the Autopsy...
June 8 2006
Traded center Rafael Araujo to the Utah Jazz for forwards Kris Humphries and Robert Whaley.
June 21 2006
Traded forwards Matt Bonner and Eric Williams and a 2009 second-round draft pick to the San Antonio Spurs for center Radoslav Nesterovic and cash; waived forward Robert Whaley.
And with Robert Whaley, we're off! Trading Hoffa, the original draft sin and a small-handed, slow-footed stiff famously picked one spot ahead of Andre Iguodala, for useful rebounder and meathead Kris Humphries, endeared Colangelo to Toronto fans and media--a halo that still seems to affect impressions of his teamcraft skills. Was his first significant move at the Raptors’ helm his best? Would the answers to that question make you and I cry a little?
We hardly knew ya’, Robert Whaley. BC’s next move is more interesting, in retrospect. He ships out Vince trade stuffing Eric Williams (who cares?) and fan favourite/shooting savant, Matt Bonner for Rasho Nesterovic. Yes, Bonner has gone on to reinvent his game as a specialist stretch four on a perennial contender (and won a ring which I’m sure he’s pawned for sandwiches) yet it’s difficult to deny Nesterovic’s contributions to the last two playoff runs, mostly by allowing Bosh to play the four for 20 minutes a night. Rasho fossilized soon after while Bonner remains a top three point shooter but for what was needed at the time--an average centre--I’ll call this transaction a draw.
Draft 2006
Selected forwards Andrea Bargnani (1st overall pick), PJ Tucker (35th overall pick) and Edin Bavcic (56th overall pick).Traded the draft rights to forward Edin Bavcic to the Philadelphia 76ers for cash.
How greatly does this little factoid fill your schadenfreude hearts to realize that the Raptors’ second round pick in 2006 has much more trade value than its first. (Thought experiment: would you rather pay for nine years of Andrea Bargnani or nine years of Brandon Roy who would play for only five of those years? I know my answer)
June 30 2006
Traded forward Charlie Villanueva to the Milwaukee Bucks for TJ Ford and cash.
This, arguably, outshone the offboarding of Hoffa. A rare example of BC selling high on Charlie V’s intriguing rookie deal for a point guard with an injury history. It’s been nice to watch Villanueva establish no real NBA skill (besides, I suppose, decent three point shooting) and get paid like an all-star, all on other team’s dime. In return, TJ Ford brought the yin to Jose Calderon’s yang to form one of the more productive (offensive) point guard rotations for the next two seasons. BC went ahead and bid against no one in extending Ford but the transaction was a definite win for Toronto.
Also, somewhere around here, BC decided not to re-sign chuck city, Mike James. It shouldn't be understated how amazing this was. Maybe this was Colangelo's best move. James would never parlay his (truly) remarkable 05-06 into basketball success but did get hilariously paid by the TWolves. Fun fact: At age 37, Mike James is playing for the Dallas Mavericks. MIKE JAMES!
July 24 2006
Signed forward Jorge Garbajosa.
July 14 2006
Signed forward Chris Bosh to a contract extension.
July 13 2006
Signed guard Anthony Parker
Garbajosa should be best remembered for looking like he smoked a pack a day but Raptors fans have, as they are wont to do, mythologized his short stint with the team with some sort of gritty intangible tough dude thing. He was a marginal NBA player. Anthony Parker, on the other hand, earned almost all of his contract as he played multiple positions (even starting point guard for a stretch) and brought steady shooting from the corners and a deft ability to move the ball. Though his defence was overrated, it was probably just age that lessened Parker’s effectiveness.
I suppose the extension for Bosh might have brought some sort of steadying influence on the direction of the team, though to give BC any credit here, shouldn’t he have negotiated for the full length of contract? I guess that’s asking too much so I’ll relent.
October 31 2006
Signed guard TJ Ford to a contract extension and exercised the contract option on forward Kris Humphries through 2007-08.
We touched on the Ford extention. Four for $33 seemed high at the time, considering the shooting problems, the injury concerns and the emerging realization that Calederon was the better player. Still, TJ Ford > Charlie V.
Division title! Playoffs! Coach/Executive of the Year! All is right with the world and this middling version of success will spur decades of dominance! I can't wait.
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Cap'n Canada Crunch
It's come to this, eh? Nash or bust, says President, General Manager and Supreme Leader of the Toronto Raptors, Bryan Colangelo. Employing Wayne Gretzky to speak truth to the cathartic bump of ending one's career in one's home and native land (wait, what?) So be it. If the brain trust, this magical ideas factory, good for winning less than 38% of their games in the past five seasons, wants to squeeze both their sad looking eggs into an even weepier basket, who am I to express surprise or outrage?
But just pocket these ten statements into your think-bank for future pondering as we head into this flea market of free agency:
But just pocket these ten statements into your think-bank for future pondering as we head into this flea market of free agency:
- Steve Nash is still a fantastic player. There's been no appreciable decline in his shooting or passing at age 37. There's every reason to believe he is John Stockton 2.0 and can play three more years at a very high level before retiring in tact
- If Steve Nash were to start for the Raptors next season, I am confident he'd be, at 38, worth two extra wins than Jose Calderon
- The Raptors have glaring holes at both swing positions, centre and backup point guard
- The Raptors, even with Nash, would struggle to win 30 games next season and there's no good reason to believe they will contend for a playoff spot in the next three years
- Jose Calderon's been, inarguably, the Raptors most productive player since Bosh left
- Signing a replacement for their most productive player, then, presumably amnestying that player does nothing to address any of the team's glaring holes, especially with unplayable, untradeable players on the roster (Kleiza)
- No argument for why Nash would want to sign here for any reason besides a most lucrative offer makes sense: because he has a relationship with Triano and Colangelo? So what? Nash has relationships all over the league. By all accounts, he's the greatest, nicest, most affable dude in the history of dudes. Yes, he identifies as Canadian but his affinity is to the west coast where his pro soccer team is, his family lives. I'm going to go out on a limb and say those ties are more important than proximity to Basketball Canada's head office in Etobicoke. He lives in Phoenix and New York. By all accounts, he enjoys the playoffs. Look, anyone with the cap space can outbid but shut the fuck up with this homecoming shit. You love Toronto. Steve Nash hangs out in Paris
- Free agency is an awful, awful market. Everyone's seen the Moneyball movie by now so I don't have to explain what 'value' is. So, know this: top five unrestricted free agents at every position will get overpaid enough to discount their value. It happened the last two years, bookending a lockout waged over wages. It happened before that. It will happen
- The only value left in the NBA market is in low-cost tertiary free agents scouted properly and trading to take on salary
- Truly and honestly prepare yourself for many more years of sub .400 basketball in Toronto. Meditate on it. Smoke a peace pipe. If Cap'n Canada's your salvation, you're cuckoo for Colangelo puffs.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
New Year's Gruntbag Theft
I'll shorten the lede, here: Stealing questions from Doug Smith's mailbag, not looking at his answers (because it's New Years and I don't need any more nausea) and answering them by my own, bitter, self:
Q: Hey Doug: Since there were a number of questions/comments about HWSNBN, I thought I'd ask another.
First, on a scale of 1 to 10, how good was he compared to how good he might have been?
Second, what (in your opinion) held him back from reaching his full potential?
Here's wishing you, Super Family and all of the Irregulars a prosperous and blog/mailbag-filled 2012!
Tim H, Windsor
Q: Doug, I hope you continue to enjoy the holiday season. Can you please comment on why DeMar is considered a shooting guard and not a small forward? I think the Raptors best lineup might include Leandro and DeMar playing at the same time, with DeMar moving to the 3. I think he has the height to play the 3.
Thanks, Happy Holidays,
Chris F, Ottawa
Q: Doug. I know 2 games in but...._Which squad do you think can produce more wins this year's Raps with new coach Casey or last year's starting line up with Jay? Forever a Raps optimist I think they will win more games playing hard D and winning ugly than trying to outscore opponents "looking good" which style do you prefer watching? The Suns or Celtics (in their prime)
M C, Winnipeg
Q: Thanks for all the effort you put into this. I follow your blog religiously and appreciate your mostly unbiased reporting. Hopefully the Star recognized you at Christmas with more than an “Attaboy but do better next year”.
First a list. Who would you rank as the top 5 free agents signed by the Rap’s. I think we forget that a few years ago the Raptors seemed to be a destination free agents would seriously consider.
Second: Which group of Raptors would you say were the best rebounding team?
Third , in the Indiana game I would have had “the Blur” out there for the last 2 minutes instead of James Johnson. Is he a defensive liability ? Thanks
Mike S, Calgary
Q: Hey Doug, happy holidays! Do crappy shooters who have made it to the NBA ever remake their shooting technique after they have spent a couple of years playing professionally?
Good luck with the schedule.
Kim A, Toronto
Yes. Lots. Michael Jordan. Magic Johnson could hit 3s by the end of the 80s. Some stay crappy forever. Do you remember Jamal Mashburn's ugly, ugly shot? No? It was ugly, trust me.
My question is: Do you see any expendable veteran-like role-player on our team that a contender might want to "get them over the hump"? Something we could turn into more young potential or draft picks? (I'm thinking possibly AJohnson or Kleiza or Barbosa or even Calderon) Any of the top tier teams have a need for one of those guys in your opinion?
Thanks!
David W, Toronto
Q: Hey Doug, say for a second the Raps wanted to get serious about this season, could they still sign Andrei Kirilenko if they wanted to, without having to make too many moves to squeeze him in? Even if it was just for this year, so they still have their precious cap space for next year to sign more bench players?
Shawn L, Bowmanville
Q: Doug. Can you give us a brief run-down of what to expect from a few of the more intriguing players / players with most upside on the Raps in 2012? Ed Davis, James Johnson and DeMar?
Is Ed the real deal? Where will he be in a season or two? Will he ever be a 20 / 10 guy?
Is James Johnson a keeper? Where does he fit in the longer term plans?
What is DeMar's ceiling realistically? Can he be a 25 / 6 guy?
Eric B, Toronto
Q: Doug: A question for seamheads.
Why don't you see more MLB batters who are being intentionally walked, swing at the first 2 pitches? Even though the ball is being lobbed to a catcher standing 10 feet from the plate, it would call for 2 more pitches that could ultimately, be thrown in the dirt, allowing a run to score, or at least help build up bad muscle memory. Thanks as always.
Ken B, Matheson
Q: Doug, what are the odds we might see DeRozan and Bargnani run a few pick and rolls? I know DeMar's handle isn't the greatest, but with his ability to slash and Bargs' ability to hit from anywhere, it would seem to present some matchup issues for opposing defences.
Chris W, Yellowknife
Q: Hey Doug: Since there were a number of questions/comments about HWSNBN, I thought I'd ask another.
First, on a scale of 1 to 10, how good was he compared to how good he might have been?
Second, what (in your opinion) held him back from reaching his full potential?
Here's wishing you, Super Family and all of the Irregulars a prosperous and blog/mailbag-filled 2012!
Tim H, Windsor
Hi, Tim. Sorry, I guess I don't follow this blog enough to know the street lingo but I assume "he who shall not be named" is Vince Carter? And not, say, BJ Armstrong? I don't like your scale, Tim, so I'll use the BitterRaptorFan Scale of Truth and Light™which spans from 17 to 34 with 26 being somewhere in the middle and say... 28. I don't know. Vince was incredible for about two seasons worth of basketball. Then oscillated between an average and slightly above average player for the next 10. I have trouble with the concept of player "potential" unless you're talking about a catastrophic injury like Penny, Grant Hill or Antonio McDyess. Yes, Vince got hurt some in the early aughts, but I think mostly he lost conditioning and a fearlessness to run into traffic. The history of pogo-sticking shooting guards is fraught with disappointment, often forgotten because of the eclipsing shadow of Jordan (and, I suppose to a lesser extent, Kobe Bryant).
I'm comfortable saying Vince Carter (if he retired tomorrow, which would be nice) was about as good of an NBA player as Mitch Richmond? Is that helpful? I think Richmond had cooler shoes, though.
Q: Doug, I hope you continue to enjoy the holiday season. Can you please comment on why DeMar is considered a shooting guard and not a small forward? I think the Raptors best lineup might include Leandro and DeMar playing at the same time, with DeMar moving to the 3. I think he has the height to play the 3.
Thanks, Happy Holidays,
Chris F, Ottawa
Frankly, my dear Chris F., I don't think it matters. With a team constructed mostly of feces, strict position delineation is a red herring for fundamental roster issues. That said, I think that in a classic half court offensive set, you want DeMar at the top of the key, able to attack the basket, have defenders collapse and try to get him fouled. While I'd normally scoff at the suggestion that anyone's best lineup includes Barbossa, unless James Johnson uses the butter on his fingers to dress popcorn, I just can't rebut. Am I starting to miss Julian Wright? No, no, it's all sample size.
Q: Doug. I know 2 games in but...._Which squad do you think can produce more wins this year's Raps with new coach Casey or last year's starting line up with Jay? Forever a Raps optimist I think they will win more games playing hard D and winning ugly than trying to outscore opponents "looking good" which style do you prefer watching? The Suns or Celtics (in their prime)
M C, Winnipeg
Really good basketball teams are fun to watch no matter what style they play. I'm too young to have watched Larry Bird anywhere but on NBA Hardwood Classics but I remember enjoying those first few years of Nash's return to Phoenix. Not just the running and the gunning but the grab-who-you-can boxing out and rebounding by committee. Check out Shawn Marion's rebounding numbers for those few years.
I'm going to dismiss, M C, your implication that any significant performance changes between last year's team and this year's will be due to coaching and say that I expect the Raptors to have a poorer winning percentage this year. Despite the scheduling gift of refraining West teams from beating up on the East, I believe that the Raptors got unexpected averageness from small forwards last year, a hard-to-match rookie campaign from Ed Davis, good health for all important players and some gifted wins eked out by ferocious rebounding by dudes like Reggie Evans and Joey Dorsey. Also, I expect Andrea Bargnani to play even more minutes this year. But, as the name suggests, I'm often a pessimist. Maybe everything works out: 23-43!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Q: Thanks for all the effort you put into this. I follow your blog religiously and appreciate your mostly unbiased reporting. Hopefully the Star recognized you at Christmas with more than an “Attaboy but do better next year”.
First a list. Who would you rank as the top 5 free agents signed by the Rap’s. I think we forget that a few years ago the Raptors seemed to be a destination free agents would seriously consider.
Second: Which group of Raptors would you say were the best rebounding team?
Third , in the Indiana game I would have had “the Blur” out there for the last 2 minutes instead of James Johnson. Is he a defensive liability ? Thanks
Mike S, Calgary
Mike S., you're going to make me think on New Years? For shame, you rapscallion Calgarian.
I assume we're talking about new-to-the-team free agents? #1 is obviously Jose Calderon. It gets hazy after that. I suppose Anthony Parker is #2 and then a bunch of nose-twitchers. Honestly, Hedo might be #3. I'm blanking about who else came to the team as a FA (besides Kapono and Hakeem) and I don't want to do any research so I yield this answer back to Doug.
(I peeked... Tracy Murray and Dell Curry are fine by me. Shrug to Garbo)
Best rebounding is a quantifiable question but I'm guessing it's the 00'-01' playoff series-winning team.
Yes, Leandro = bad on defence. Bad, bad, bad.
Q: Hey Doug, happy holidays! Do crappy shooters who have made it to the NBA ever remake their shooting technique after they have spent a couple of years playing professionally?
Good luck with the schedule.
Kim A, Toronto
Yes. Lots. Michael Jordan. Magic Johnson could hit 3s by the end of the 80s. Some stay crappy forever. Do you remember Jamal Mashburn's ugly, ugly shot? No? It was ugly, trust me.
My question is: Do you see any expendable veteran-like role-player on our team that a contender might want to "get them over the hump"? Something we could turn into more young potential or draft picks? (I'm thinking possibly AJohnson or Kleiza or Barbosa or even Calderon) Any of the top tier teams have a need for one of those guys in your opinion?
Thanks!
David W, Toronto
Yes! Andrea Bargnani! You hear that, contenders? Trade for him! Bryan Colangelo is waiting by the phone! Call now! Don't delay! Raps will chip in Leafs tickets and pay shipping and handling!
Q: Hey Doug, say for a second the Raps wanted to get serious about this season, could they still sign Andrei Kirilenko if they wanted to, without having to make too many moves to squeeze him in? Even if it was just for this year, so they still have their precious cap space for next year to sign more bench players?
Shawn L, Bowmanville
Good question, Shawny. I actually have no idea what's up with Kirilenko. He's playing pro in Russia, I think. Maybe he knocked up a Russian lass in his annual freebie and is paying off the debt. He's only 30 which means he probably has four more years of productive basketball in him but he hasn't been able to stay healthy the last few and he no longer blocks shots like a centre. For the future, I'd be okay signing him in the mid-level range for a few years but I'd bet a contending team would match that offer. But, no, Shawn, the Raptors should not pay anyone any more money to play for them this year.
Q: Doug. Can you give us a brief run-down of what to expect from a few of the more intriguing players / players with most upside on the Raps in 2012? Ed Davis, James Johnson and DeMar?
Is Ed the real deal? Where will he be in a season or two? Will he ever be a 20 / 10 guy?
Is James Johnson a keeper? Where does he fit in the longer term plans?
What is DeMar's ceiling realistically? Can he be a 25 / 6 guy?
Eric B, Toronto
With the disclaimer that point and rebound totals are stupid ways to rate players, Ed Davis had an incredibly promising rookie season that took me by surprise. He's an excellent rebounder who goes above the rim to grab boards. I prefer "grounded" rebounders in the Rodman/Wallace/Evans mould as I believe those type of players can thrive into the latter stages of their careers. But Davis can also keep his cover in front of him, recover from help defence, take Jose's alley-oops and seems to be developing a decent close-to-the-basket offensive repertoire. I can't predict the future but I'm in on Ed. He's getting the 10 rebounds in starter's minutes anyways. Could he be the leading scorer on a good team? I think so, if he was continually fed the ball inside or on the break (with possessions taken away from Bargnani).
James Johnson is a decent rebounder and defender but his affinity for chucking keeps him at just higher than replacement-level player but, unfortunately, right now he's playing ahead of below replacement players like Rasual Butler and Gary Forbes.
Q: Doug: A question for seamheads.
Why don't you see more MLB batters who are being intentionally walked, swing at the first 2 pitches? Even though the ball is being lobbed to a catcher standing 10 feet from the plate, it would call for 2 more pitches that could ultimately, be thrown in the dirt, allowing a run to score, or at least help build up bad muscle memory. Thanks as always.
Ken B, Matheson
A baseball question? Fun! zgall1 is ringing in the new year in sunny Mexico so I'll have to handle this myself. Ken, they totally should. Not for muscle memory but to wear out pitchers and potentially lead a ball past the catcher. The only reason they don't is that the secret code of baseball manliness would dicate that swinging at IWs is punishable by fastballs to the skull.
Q: Doug, what are the odds we might see DeRozan and Bargnani run a few pick and rolls? I know DeMar's handle isn't the greatest, but with his ability to slash and Bargs' ability to hit from anywhere, it would seem to present some matchup issues for opposing defences.
Chris W, Yellowknife
Next Raps game, watch for situations in which DeMar has to make a decisive pass with the defence set up, it's not pretty.
There's some speculative questions about Triano vs. Casey that I'll ignore in the spirit of banalysis.
Happy New Year, to all the bitter Raptor fans out there. May 2012 exceed our eroded expectations!
Thursday, December 29, 2011
A short, irrational essay on soft heads and Sids the Kids
Have I previously confessed that hockey is an afterthought in my little head? I think I have. So I'll proceed with the disclaimer of paying only casual attention but retain the mythical power sports business executives bequeath on such casual observers...
If, indeed, Sidney Crosby, the hero of 2010 Olympics, the boy wonder, Halifax's Lebron, is down for the count with concussion-related injuries, then I quit. I've read just enough on CTE to know that I don't want it anywhere near anyone I care about. I'm as libertarian as the next guy: If people want to smoke or inject heroin or drive race cars into concrete walls, as long as you're not hurting anyone else, good-on-ya'. But I care about Crosby. He's truly an important cultural figure in my life. I remember where I was, in the Pour House pub by the table in the corner, when he put Team Canada on his shoulders, lay down le hated Americanos, and gifted me the opportunity to send "SUCK IT" texts to my American friends.
And it's not because it's Crosby. It's because of what might happen to the next Crosby, the next great talent that gets me to flip away from the Raptors game to check out what this dude just did with a puck. For that guy, I want it out: Fighting, head hits, whatever. I don't care if it's surgically removed or hacked off with a rusty axe. I don't care if the game isn't the "game" anymore. I don't care if Don Cherry induces a stroke. I want Gary Bettman, the players, six doctors and the Ghost of Christmas Precautionary Principles, to get in a room and not emerge until we have reason to believe the skulls of people I care about are no longer in immediate and existential danger. Do it now.
Listen clear, NHL: You lose Crosby, you lose me.
If, indeed, Sidney Crosby, the hero of 2010 Olympics, the boy wonder, Halifax's Lebron, is down for the count with concussion-related injuries, then I quit. I've read just enough on CTE to know that I don't want it anywhere near anyone I care about. I'm as libertarian as the next guy: If people want to smoke or inject heroin or drive race cars into concrete walls, as long as you're not hurting anyone else, good-on-ya'. But I care about Crosby. He's truly an important cultural figure in my life. I remember where I was, in the Pour House pub by the table in the corner, when he put Team Canada on his shoulders, lay down le hated Americanos, and gifted me the opportunity to send "SUCK IT" texts to my American friends.
And it's not because it's Crosby. It's because of what might happen to the next Crosby, the next great talent that gets me to flip away from the Raptors game to check out what this dude just did with a puck. For that guy, I want it out: Fighting, head hits, whatever. I don't care if it's surgically removed or hacked off with a rusty axe. I don't care if the game isn't the "game" anymore. I don't care if Don Cherry induces a stroke. I want Gary Bettman, the players, six doctors and the Ghost of Christmas Precautionary Principles, to get in a room and not emerge until we have reason to believe the skulls of people I care about are no longer in immediate and existential danger. Do it now.
Listen clear, NHL: You lose Crosby, you lose me.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Yuey Forks
I don't even really know why I'm disappointed. I've never seen Yu Darvish play. Maybe he is sliced bread. Maybe he is rancid sashimi. Maybe he pitches forkballs so disgusting major league batters are made to cry. Maybe his arm falls off in his first start in Arlington.
I think I'm disappointed because I was excited. I think I was excited because something was happening. And it was happening to/for us. For Jays fans! You know us, we're the pudgy kid picked second-last in the AL East gym class (sorry O's). Who knows if his addition would vault the Jays from a .500 team to a .520 team? It was just... it was just nice to be relevant. To be striving. And, yes, the chattering became unbearably obnoxious. You couldn't have paid me with enough rotund first-basemen to get me to listen to Jays Talk last night.
But isn't being unbearably obnoxious part of what thrusts fans into the big-time? I mean, no one can stand Sox or Yankees or Cubs fans because of their irrational responses to any move or potential move. In a city where anything but hockey is relegated to under-card status, why not get all hot and bothered over a rumour, an idea, a gamble? We are goddamn serious about the Toronto Blue Jays. We want our owner to spend (wisely) our GM to best his adversaries and our team to kick the living shit out of the rest of the American League. We're a loud, passionate, growing fan-base. And, as it turns out, passion isn't polite and it isn't circumspect. It's loud-mouth assholes whining on Twitter and on the FAN590. This is the big leagues, kids. Let's play ball.
I think I'm disappointed because I was excited. I think I was excited because something was happening. And it was happening to/for us. For Jays fans! You know us, we're the pudgy kid picked second-last in the AL East gym class (sorry O's). Who knows if his addition would vault the Jays from a .500 team to a .520 team? It was just... it was just nice to be relevant. To be striving. And, yes, the chattering became unbearably obnoxious. You couldn't have paid me with enough rotund first-basemen to get me to listen to Jays Talk last night.
But isn't being unbearably obnoxious part of what thrusts fans into the big-time? I mean, no one can stand Sox or Yankees or Cubs fans because of their irrational responses to any move or potential move. In a city where anything but hockey is relegated to under-card status, why not get all hot and bothered over a rumour, an idea, a gamble? We are goddamn serious about the Toronto Blue Jays. We want our owner to spend (wisely) our GM to best his adversaries and our team to kick the living shit out of the rest of the American League. We're a loud, passionate, growing fan-base. And, as it turns out, passion isn't polite and it isn't circumspect. It's loud-mouth assholes whining on Twitter and on the FAN590. This is the big leagues, kids. Let's play ball.
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Mailgrunt Time!
I'm doing that thing I stole from Drunk Jays Fans where I take the questions I stole from Doug Smith, don't look at his "answers" and answer them "myself." It's meta-theft. It's lazy and amateurish which is perfect because I'm lazy and an amateur.
But, first, I just want to confess to supplying Ryan Braun with PEDs. I promise that no injections took place on Yom Kippur.
Mike D, Cambridge
Going to rock the sure-shot, Mike D? The minimum rises from 75% to 85% then 90%. It's in the CBA as a counterpoint to the cap itself. A floor to match the imposition of a ceiling. I'm against both. But as the whole salary scale is tied to BRI and salary kept in escrow, I don't know if it makes much of a difference in the end, other than to further socialize the piece of the pie assigned to lower-to-middle-income players.
Q: Doug.... oh how good it is to be back in bball land. Did you miss us? I couldn't help but notice your omission of Andrea Bargnani as part of the group of core Raptor players. Where do you see his future as a Raptor? And, do you see a future there?
Alex F, Calgary
MENTAL TOUGHNESS!!!
Q: Hi Doug. Going into the lockout, the owners had stated that one of their goals was to create more competitive balance in the league by making it harder for the big market teams to acquire upper echelon talent via free agency or the sign and trade route. Do you feel this new agreement addresses this issue or should more have been done? Further, in an ideal world, what system do you feel would work best to establish that competitive balance so that any team in the league with proper drafting, trading, free agent signings, and good player development has a fair chance to succeed.
Thank you Doug.
Joe D, Mississauga
No, Joe D., I don't. And I don't believe, sincerely, that competitive balance was ever really a goal. The owners wanted to reduce salaries. There are a few trinkets, like a reduced mid-level exception for tax-paying teams that, potentially, could limit certain signings. But there's nothing that's going to stop great players from wanting, and manoeuvring, to play with each other, and the salary cap encourages that by creating price ceilings. I prefer when team sports have parity but I don't believe the NBA, from a whole-entity perspective does, now that they make so much of their revenue from TV deals. And the parity I want is not achieved by putting draconian clamps on teams but by allowing teams to operate freely and reward savviness.
But, first, I just want to confess to supplying Ryan Braun with PEDs. I promise that no injections took place on Yom Kippur.
Q: Hi Doug, I know you have done this in past seasons, but if any season cries out for a road trip it is this one. What are your recommendations? I am thinking either a quick trip to NYC to take in games for the Knicks, Nets and Boston or Philly (via train) or perhaps something into the heart of Texas to see the Mavs but I am not sure how drivable the other close teams are (OKC, San Antonio etc.) Play travel agent and give your thoughts please. Thanks.
David W, Oakville
I definitely recommend Cleveland. You are not a true basketball fan until you experience the beautiful game at the ground-zero of utter municipal despair. Side story: Some years ago, friends and I roadtripped to the Big Cleve to catch a Raps game. We were blown out. A buddy actually had a brief encounter with Sir Douglas Smith in the smoker's lounge. I was told it was a magical meeting.
Also, the scoreboard, more than once, flashed the logos of the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Yankees to which the tepid crowd would pipe up with a "boo" chorus. I asked someone in our section why football and baseball logos were eliciting reaction. The guy's answer: "Those are our rival teams. NFL and MLB are much more important here than NBA." This was less than a year after LeBron led the Cavs to the NBA finals and the crowd needed prompts from other pro sports to get them going? This is why I will never feel bad for Cleveland or the Cavs' ass-faced owner.
David W, Oakville
I definitely recommend Cleveland. You are not a true basketball fan until you experience the beautiful game at the ground-zero of utter municipal despair. Side story: Some years ago, friends and I roadtripped to the Big Cleve to catch a Raps game. We were blown out. A buddy actually had a brief encounter with Sir Douglas Smith in the smoker's lounge. I was told it was a magical meeting.
Also, the scoreboard, more than once, flashed the logos of the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Yankees to which the tepid crowd would pipe up with a "boo" chorus. I asked someone in our section why football and baseball logos were eliciting reaction. The guy's answer: "Those are our rival teams. NFL and MLB are much more important here than NBA." This was less than a year after LeBron led the Cavs to the NBA finals and the crowd needed prompts from other pro sports to get them going? This is why I will never feel bad for Cleveland or the Cavs' ass-faced owner.
Q: Hi Doug. As I was watching highlights of NBA games from many years ago, it is interesting that players never seemed to wear any padding or protection. Given that many players are now wearing various forms of leg, rib and shoulder pads, is that a function of rule changes allowing for the padding or just changes in attitude? Also, I assume there are some restrictions on the equipment that NBA players can wear?
Thanks
Martin J, Toronto
I don't know the rules on that and since this is isn't actually a real mailbag I don't need to look it up. I hope Doug did. I'm pretty sure there are restrictions as I remember Iverson and Wade having to lose some layers of sleeves at some point. There's a problem in the NHL and NFL where, for safety reasons, pads are getting thicker, lighter and more effective. But a side effect is that players respond by feeling more secure and are more likely to hit harder, or put more impact into the contact and that's leading to injuries. An arms race issue, really. As the concussion narrative becomes more prominent we're going to see the equipment issue discussed more regularly.
[There's some extra inane personal questions to Doug because, apparently, no one has yet to inform him that readers are looking for insight into the NBA not a Q&A on how interesting his life is. Basketball questions only, here.]
Q: I keep getting the feeling that Sam got a raw deal. Jay surely didn't work out in his time, and we'll see what the new guy can do to motivate Bargnani and the rest of the misfits. Think the record would've been any different if Mitchell stays as the head coach here?
Jon K, Hamilton
With the caveat that I (and most current research on the subject) don't believe coaches make significant differences to the success of a team (I'm comfortable saying replacing a team's least effective starter with a player of equal effectiveness to their second least effective starter has more of an impact) I think Sam Mitchell would have done worse. Even with a decent roster, Mitchell employed questionable out-of-timeout plays (a place where coaches can contribute) and jaw-droppingly illogical line-ups. I think Jay Triano, for the most part, did the best with what he had to the extent of how a league-average head coach would perform. Sorry, that was an awful sentence. As for motivating Bargnani, I cannot imagine a tactic that would make an impact short of threatening castration.
Thanks
Martin J, Toronto
I don't know the rules on that and since this is isn't actually a real mailbag I don't need to look it up. I hope Doug did. I'm pretty sure there are restrictions as I remember Iverson and Wade having to lose some layers of sleeves at some point. There's a problem in the NHL and NFL where, for safety reasons, pads are getting thicker, lighter and more effective. But a side effect is that players respond by feeling more secure and are more likely to hit harder, or put more impact into the contact and that's leading to injuries. An arms race issue, really. As the concussion narrative becomes more prominent we're going to see the equipment issue discussed more regularly.
[There's some extra inane personal questions to Doug because, apparently, no one has yet to inform him that readers are looking for insight into the NBA not a Q&A on how interesting his life is. Basketball questions only, here.]
Q: I keep getting the feeling that Sam got a raw deal. Jay surely didn't work out in his time, and we'll see what the new guy can do to motivate Bargnani and the rest of the misfits. Think the record would've been any different if Mitchell stays as the head coach here?
Jon K, Hamilton
With the caveat that I (and most current research on the subject) don't believe coaches make significant differences to the success of a team (I'm comfortable saying replacing a team's least effective starter with a player of equal effectiveness to their second least effective starter has more of an impact) I think Sam Mitchell would have done worse. Even with a decent roster, Mitchell employed questionable out-of-timeout plays (a place where coaches can contribute) and jaw-droppingly illogical line-ups. I think Jay Triano, for the most part, did the best with what he had to the extent of how a league-average head coach would perform. Sorry, that was an awful sentence. As for motivating Bargnani, I cannot imagine a tactic that would make an impact short of threatening castration.
Q: Hey Doug. Can you possibly explain where the Raps currently sit in relation to the CAP? We hear they'll have money to spend next summer, yet in looking at our existing roster, currently devoid of top tier talent, you'd think there would be at least some money available now. Or is Bryan just holding off on spending because of what's available right now?
Thanks again as always!
Jim F, London
Hey, a real question! Jimmy (can I call you "Jimmy?") For the first time in more than a decade, I don't have a clue. I don't, yet, understand what the cap is, what salaries are/will be, or the contract situations of the majority of what will be the Raptors' roster. I promise you, by New Year's, I will know these things. What I know is mostly gleaned from Larry Coon posts.
I'll speak more generally, then, to a couple of points:
- I eyeballed the Raps' committed salaries before the FA signings of Magloire, Forbes, Gray, Butler and Carter at about $42 million (I'm very open to correction on all of this). I believe the upcoming cap to be pegged at $58 million which my finger-math tells me is $16 million to play with plus $2.5 for that new mid-level exception. Also that teams must, this season and next, have a minimum salary of 85% of the cap which would be about $49 million. I'm sure the make-up of the five additions put the Raps into the low-mid-50s. Let's say it's $53 million. It's going to mean the Raps, and all teams under the cap, will not have gobs of space. But they will be able to take on salary in a trade should an opportunity present itself.
- This is what a smart, building team would do: Get your team as close as possible to the minimum by signing cheap players to one or two year contracts (which the Raps, in their defence, are in the realm of doing) then, for the summer of 2013, shed salary by trading it away or by amnesty-ing and get ready to take on salary with a free agent signing or big trade. The minimum salary will go to 90% of the cap then so the team might as well stack up salary with players they actually want. $5.3 million for Pietrus was (almost) a move against this strategy.
- I don't know how amnestied players' salaries get counted towards the minimum. Things get interesting if they do. But, because teams need to keep salary on the books no matter what, it's even dumber to amnesty Jose Calderon unless the Raps know they are going to bring in a tier one player (and that would be dumb, stil,l as Bargnani pulls almost the same paycheque, but for longer). If the amnestied salary doesn't count, then unless a team is ready to add salary (or needs to get below the tax) they might as well carry the player. If I can't trade Bargnani/Kleiza, I amnesty him next summer or the summer after.
- The free agent class this year, I believe, will be paid handsomely. There are very few players I'd want to go all in on: Marc Gasol. I'd make a competitive offer to Dalembert, Pryzbilla or Troy Murphy. I think there might be rare value on centres this year. I'd look at Kirilenko. But besides these very few options, there's no point in spending cash now to turn a 10 win team into a 13 win team. I'd see what this amnesty waiver market does (My impressions is it will empower the likes of the Lakers, Knicks and Heat even more -- yay lockout!). I'd wait for the trade deadline and try to take advantage of teams either trying to shed salary or make panicky playoff moves. I think Ronnie Brewer and Landry Fields are high value players that could be procured. I think Iguodala should be a prime target and I'd strike whenever conditions are right.
- Because it seems generally accepted that next year's draft will be strong, and noting that very good draft players are less of a bargain in this CBA, I think teams will overpay for draft picks. Even a projected top-five pick isn't necessarily as valuable as adding a proven, effective player at a higher salary. I mean, for chrissakes, it looks like the Lakers are just giving away Lamar Odom. I'll take the next four years of an (aging, yes) Odom over the median top-five rookie.
That question was fun and made me use the dark parts of my brain. Thanks, Jimbo.
Thanks again as always!
Jim F, London
Hey, a real question! Jimmy (can I call you "Jimmy?") For the first time in more than a decade, I don't have a clue. I don't, yet, understand what the cap is, what salaries are/will be, or the contract situations of the majority of what will be the Raptors' roster. I promise you, by New Year's, I will know these things. What I know is mostly gleaned from Larry Coon posts.
I'll speak more generally, then, to a couple of points:
- I eyeballed the Raps' committed salaries before the FA signings of Magloire, Forbes, Gray, Butler and Carter at about $42 million (I'm very open to correction on all of this). I believe the upcoming cap to be pegged at $58 million which my finger-math tells me is $16 million to play with plus $2.5 for that new mid-level exception. Also that teams must, this season and next, have a minimum salary of 85% of the cap which would be about $49 million. I'm sure the make-up of the five additions put the Raps into the low-mid-50s. Let's say it's $53 million. It's going to mean the Raps, and all teams under the cap, will not have gobs of space. But they will be able to take on salary in a trade should an opportunity present itself.
- This is what a smart, building team would do: Get your team as close as possible to the minimum by signing cheap players to one or two year contracts (which the Raps, in their defence, are in the realm of doing) then, for the summer of 2013, shed salary by trading it away or by amnesty-ing and get ready to take on salary with a free agent signing or big trade. The minimum salary will go to 90% of the cap then so the team might as well stack up salary with players they actually want. $5.3 million for Pietrus was (almost) a move against this strategy.
- I don't know how amnestied players' salaries get counted towards the minimum. Things get interesting if they do. But, because teams need to keep salary on the books no matter what, it's even dumber to amnesty Jose Calderon unless the Raps know they are going to bring in a tier one player (and that would be dumb, stil,l as Bargnani pulls almost the same paycheque, but for longer). If the amnestied salary doesn't count, then unless a team is ready to add salary (or needs to get below the tax) they might as well carry the player. If I can't trade Bargnani/Kleiza, I amnesty him next summer or the summer after.
- The free agent class this year, I believe, will be paid handsomely. There are very few players I'd want to go all in on: Marc Gasol. I'd make a competitive offer to Dalembert, Pryzbilla or Troy Murphy. I think there might be rare value on centres this year. I'd look at Kirilenko. But besides these very few options, there's no point in spending cash now to turn a 10 win team into a 13 win team. I'd see what this amnesty waiver market does (My impressions is it will empower the likes of the Lakers, Knicks and Heat even more -- yay lockout!). I'd wait for the trade deadline and try to take advantage of teams either trying to shed salary or make panicky playoff moves. I think Ronnie Brewer and Landry Fields are high value players that could be procured. I think Iguodala should be a prime target and I'd strike whenever conditions are right.
- Because it seems generally accepted that next year's draft will be strong, and noting that very good draft players are less of a bargain in this CBA, I think teams will overpay for draft picks. Even a projected top-five pick isn't necessarily as valuable as adding a proven, effective player at a higher salary. I mean, for chrissakes, it looks like the Lakers are just giving away Lamar Odom. I'll take the next four years of an (aging, yes) Odom over the median top-five rookie.
That question was fun and made me use the dark parts of my brain. Thanks, Jimbo.
Q: Greetings Doug. Since this lockout was all about "helping the small market teams" how on earth did a spending minimum of 85% of the cap make it into the new CBA? We know they looked at the puck's agreement. How did they miss the fact that the minimum was the worst part of the entire deal?
Mike D, Cambridge
Going to rock the sure-shot, Mike D? The minimum rises from 75% to 85% then 90%. It's in the CBA as a counterpoint to the cap itself. A floor to match the imposition of a ceiling. I'm against both. But as the whole salary scale is tied to BRI and salary kept in escrow, I don't know if it makes much of a difference in the end, other than to further socialize the piece of the pie assigned to lower-to-middle-income players.
Q: Doug.... oh how good it is to be back in bball land. Did you miss us? I couldn't help but notice your omission of Andrea Bargnani as part of the group of core Raptor players. Where do you see his future as a Raptor? And, do you see a future there?
Alex F, Calgary
I'll bet anything Doug is telling Alex F. how Andrea Bargnani is inches away from revolutionizing the centre position. But he's wrong. No Mago has no business earning an NBA paycheque. The Raptors commit crimes against basketballity by keeping him; that money should go to actual players. Or the Foundation. Or just give it to the Jays.
Q: Seasonal greetings, that time of year and at some point I will have time to enjoy it. Anyway, wondering a little about other possible areas that could be developed this season for the Rap's that might not be so easily noticed by the fan base. We hear talk of "culture" and "tradition" around sports teams and I wonder if there is an opportunity to make strides in these areas this season? Can the Rap's bring players in that have, as an example, an exemplary work ethic off court that hopefully creates a standard for the younger players around the team? A real seasoned pro that is able provide a solid and practical example of how to deal with back to back games? Someone who is great at focusing the team on a pregame ritual that helps everyone be mentally ready for the ball toss? I guess the real question is, given the transient nature of this year's team, will there be any reasonable expectation that the above mentioned stuff could be built this year and carried forward?
Thanks as always for what you do,
Doug T, Brantford
Q: Seasonal greetings, that time of year and at some point I will have time to enjoy it. Anyway, wondering a little about other possible areas that could be developed this season for the Rap's that might not be so easily noticed by the fan base. We hear talk of "culture" and "tradition" around sports teams and I wonder if there is an opportunity to make strides in these areas this season? Can the Rap's bring players in that have, as an example, an exemplary work ethic off court that hopefully creates a standard for the younger players around the team? A real seasoned pro that is able provide a solid and practical example of how to deal with back to back games? Someone who is great at focusing the team on a pregame ritual that helps everyone be mentally ready for the ball toss? I guess the real question is, given the transient nature of this year's team, will there be any reasonable expectation that the above mentioned stuff could be built this year and carried forward?
Thanks as always for what you do,
Doug T, Brantford
MENTAL TOUGHNESS!!!
Q: Hi Doug. Going into the lockout, the owners had stated that one of their goals was to create more competitive balance in the league by making it harder for the big market teams to acquire upper echelon talent via free agency or the sign and trade route. Do you feel this new agreement addresses this issue or should more have been done? Further, in an ideal world, what system do you feel would work best to establish that competitive balance so that any team in the league with proper drafting, trading, free agent signings, and good player development has a fair chance to succeed.
Thank you Doug.
Joe D, Mississauga
No, Joe D., I don't. And I don't believe, sincerely, that competitive balance was ever really a goal. The owners wanted to reduce salaries. There are a few trinkets, like a reduced mid-level exception for tax-paying teams that, potentially, could limit certain signings. But there's nothing that's going to stop great players from wanting, and manoeuvring, to play with each other, and the salary cap encourages that by creating price ceilings. I prefer when team sports have parity but I don't believe the NBA, from a whole-entity perspective does, now that they make so much of their revenue from TV deals. And the parity I want is not achieved by putting draconian clamps on teams but by allowing teams to operate freely and reward savviness.
Q: Hi Doug. Have ignored hoops and the raps until a week ago, couldn’t find a way to watch millionaires and billionaires argue about money.
Two quick questions - one is about the trade exception acquired in the bosh sign and trade. I know Colangelo used a portion of it during last season. Has the balance expired? If it has expired why is Colangelo not taking more heat for letting it expire? Surely he could have found a use for it in the lead up to the 2011 draft.
Can you tell us more about the one time amnesty clause available to each team. Will the Raptors be using theirs on Calderon? If a player has their contract wiped out via the amnesty clause can they re sign with the same team? Is there another candidate with the raps other than Jose for amnesty?
Thanks, enjoy the compact season!
Jeff VH, Toronto
The trade exception allowed the Raps to take on salary in a trade without sending salary back for one year after the trade. Since they were getting under the cap, and didn't seem poised to bring in an expensive player, it was a tool that didn't need using. Though maybe they could have picked up Lamar Odom. (I'm throwing my hands up and shaking my head, if you didn't already gather)
I understand the amnesty can be used once throughout the CBA through the off-season window for contracts signed before the new deal. Teams are on the hook for the amnestied player's salary but it comes off the books in terms of cap and tax. As said before, I'm not sure how it's treated as a component of minimum salary. I've talked about all this earlier but amnesty-ing Calderon would be one of the dumbest basketball moves ever made in the history of the NBA. So don't put it past Bry-Bry.
Q: Hey Doug. Like the blog, interesting and honest. I have been a season's ticket holder now for 7 years shelling out a good amount of cash every year including a return GO ticket to watch the Raps. I have to say listening to Brian on Prime Time Sports the other night really got me thinking that professional sports is the most unique business in the world. Imagine the GM of a major car company going on Top Gear and telling the boys spend your money on this car, it really isn't intended to be good and will be the baseline for future much better cars (potentially). It is fascinating that in sports you are asked to part with the same amount of money annually to buy into a long term philosophy. I guess that is the nature of entertainment. My other point about Brian is that for the first time since he has come to Toronto, I really don't buy what he is selling anymore. So, my question for you is how would you rank him as a GM? Here is the criteria I would like you to consider:
Overall team record in the years of service.
Leadership in and out of the office
Ability to deal with the media
Likelihood of future success.
Thanks,
Mike M, Mississauga
I don't know or care about the out-of-office leadership or media tact. The rest? Is "pukey" an allowable rating? What's the name of this blog? Put it this way... If Bryan Colangelo were a double agent sent here from the NBA to secretly destroy the Raptors, there's precious little he would do differently. He's been given a lifetime pass for an unexpected, better-than-mediocre 2006-2007 season. The three biggest contributors to that team were Chris Bosh (that went well), TJ Ford (in one of his two above average seasons) and Jose Calderon (who he tried to trade for a couple months of Tyson Chandler and Boris Diaw's carcass and now appears to be an amnesty risk). In a league where more than half of teams make the playoffs, that's just not good enough. I have and will continue to make the case that no team's operated as unintelligently as the Raptors since Colangelo came to town. In fact, that argument is sometimes all that keeps the fire burning inside my belly. I need to get out more.
Two quick questions - one is about the trade exception acquired in the bosh sign and trade. I know Colangelo used a portion of it during last season. Has the balance expired? If it has expired why is Colangelo not taking more heat for letting it expire? Surely he could have found a use for it in the lead up to the 2011 draft.
Can you tell us more about the one time amnesty clause available to each team. Will the Raptors be using theirs on Calderon? If a player has their contract wiped out via the amnesty clause can they re sign with the same team? Is there another candidate with the raps other than Jose for amnesty?
Thanks, enjoy the compact season!
Jeff VH, Toronto
The trade exception allowed the Raps to take on salary in a trade without sending salary back for one year after the trade. Since they were getting under the cap, and didn't seem poised to bring in an expensive player, it was a tool that didn't need using. Though maybe they could have picked up Lamar Odom. (I'm throwing my hands up and shaking my head, if you didn't already gather)
I understand the amnesty can be used once throughout the CBA through the off-season window for contracts signed before the new deal. Teams are on the hook for the amnestied player's salary but it comes off the books in terms of cap and tax. As said before, I'm not sure how it's treated as a component of minimum salary. I've talked about all this earlier but amnesty-ing Calderon would be one of the dumbest basketball moves ever made in the history of the NBA. So don't put it past Bry-Bry.
Q: Hey Doug. Like the blog, interesting and honest. I have been a season's ticket holder now for 7 years shelling out a good amount of cash every year including a return GO ticket to watch the Raps. I have to say listening to Brian on Prime Time Sports the other night really got me thinking that professional sports is the most unique business in the world. Imagine the GM of a major car company going on Top Gear and telling the boys spend your money on this car, it really isn't intended to be good and will be the baseline for future much better cars (potentially). It is fascinating that in sports you are asked to part with the same amount of money annually to buy into a long term philosophy. I guess that is the nature of entertainment. My other point about Brian is that for the first time since he has come to Toronto, I really don't buy what he is selling anymore. So, my question for you is how would you rank him as a GM? Here is the criteria I would like you to consider:
Overall team record in the years of service.
Leadership in and out of the office
Ability to deal with the media
Likelihood of future success.
Thanks,
Mike M, Mississauga
I don't know or care about the out-of-office leadership or media tact. The rest? Is "pukey" an allowable rating? What's the name of this blog? Put it this way... If Bryan Colangelo were a double agent sent here from the NBA to secretly destroy the Raptors, there's precious little he would do differently. He's been given a lifetime pass for an unexpected, better-than-mediocre 2006-2007 season. The three biggest contributors to that team were Chris Bosh (that went well), TJ Ford (in one of his two above average seasons) and Jose Calderon (who he tried to trade for a couple months of Tyson Chandler and Boris Diaw's carcass and now appears to be an amnesty risk). In a league where more than half of teams make the playoffs, that's just not good enough. I have and will continue to make the case that no team's operated as unintelligently as the Raptors since Colangelo came to town. In fact, that argument is sometimes all that keeps the fire burning inside my belly. I need to get out more.
Friday, December 9, 2011
Tripping Balls
I haven't written much, yet, about this new NBA. I love basketball. I've loved basketball since the 1994 baseball strike left a hole in my young heart and I filled it playing games of NBA Jam in my basement until Toronto's own franchise was born. And together we've stood. I'm older now. I have precious fewer minutes to watch, to read, to consume, to debate the team and the sport. But I felt the absence this lockout brought . I missed the peaks and valleys of the free agent hot stove. The waiting. The wondering. After all, how can I play armchair GM without a team to generally manage?
And I don't really care about the BRI, contract length or whether luxury tax teams can offer the same mid-level exception. I'll learn all the new rules eventually. I prefer my sports leagues as un-capped as possible, but, as the kids are saying, "whateve-sies."
What I do care about is that the league isn't FUCKING BONKERS. Sorry, for the caps, for the swearing. I'm calm. I'll stop.
While I maintain that free agents should be able to sell their wares to the highest bidder, one thing that's always goaded my tail-feather is when players demand a trade, especially a trade to a specific team. Because when it happens, it makes every other interaction and consideration, trade and signing, impotent. Players sign contracts. Teams make trades. Stay in your corners, gentlemen.
But what David Stern (and Cleveland's finest, Danny Gilbert) has done in vetoing last night's Chris Paul trade is so much worse. It's the NBA's death penalty.
It's like sitting down to a friendly game of Monopoly with your best friends on a cold, rainy Sunday. You land on properties, buy, sell, trade, land on chance, go to jail. After an hour or so, someone's going to be ahead with Boardwalk and Park Place, someone's going to be putting hotels on the Oranges, someone's going to be mortgaging Baltic Ave. to buy that one remaining railroad. There's winners and there's losers. Eventually someone gets mad and someone gets sore and someone gets gloat-y. It's a game, that's how it works.
Then, imagine if you will, one buddy pulls out a gun, points it at your head and announces: "give me all your cash and hotels." Suddenly, it's not a game anymore. Nothing that came before that moment matters. "Here. Take it. It's yours. I never liked this game anyways."
The lock-out was a Monopoly stick-up. So is the league owning the Hornets and treating that franchise like a Goodwill dumpster. Scola? Kevin Martin? Lamar Odom? I'd trade the entire Raptors roster for those three dudes. Chris Paul is the greatest point guard to ever play the game and I don't think the Lakers, barring more trades, end up on top of that deal.
The most thrilling part of perusing Dan Gilbert's leaked email to the Commish is as follows:
Over the next three seasons this deal would save the Lakers approximately $20 million in salaries and approximately $21 million in luxury taxes. That $21 million goes to non-taxpaying teams and to fund revenue sharing.
And I don't really care about the BRI, contract length or whether luxury tax teams can offer the same mid-level exception. I'll learn all the new rules eventually. I prefer my sports leagues as un-capped as possible, but, as the kids are saying, "whateve-sies."
What I do care about is that the league isn't FUCKING BONKERS. Sorry, for the caps, for the swearing. I'm calm. I'll stop.
While I maintain that free agents should be able to sell their wares to the highest bidder, one thing that's always goaded my tail-feather is when players demand a trade, especially a trade to a specific team. Because when it happens, it makes every other interaction and consideration, trade and signing, impotent. Players sign contracts. Teams make trades. Stay in your corners, gentlemen.
But what David Stern (and Cleveland's finest, Danny Gilbert) has done in vetoing last night's Chris Paul trade is so much worse. It's the NBA's death penalty.
It's like sitting down to a friendly game of Monopoly with your best friends on a cold, rainy Sunday. You land on properties, buy, sell, trade, land on chance, go to jail. After an hour or so, someone's going to be ahead with Boardwalk and Park Place, someone's going to be putting hotels on the Oranges, someone's going to be mortgaging Baltic Ave. to buy that one remaining railroad. There's winners and there's losers. Eventually someone gets mad and someone gets sore and someone gets gloat-y. It's a game, that's how it works.
Then, imagine if you will, one buddy pulls out a gun, points it at your head and announces: "give me all your cash and hotels." Suddenly, it's not a game anymore. Nothing that came before that moment matters. "Here. Take it. It's yours. I never liked this game anyways."
The lock-out was a Monopoly stick-up. So is the league owning the Hornets and treating that franchise like a Goodwill dumpster. Scola? Kevin Martin? Lamar Odom? I'd trade the entire Raptors roster for those three dudes. Chris Paul is the greatest point guard to ever play the game and I don't think the Lakers, barring more trades, end up on top of that deal.
The most thrilling part of perusing Dan Gilbert's leaked email to the Commish is as follows:
Over the next three seasons this deal would save the Lakers approximately $20 million in salaries and approximately $21 million in luxury taxes. That $21 million goes to non-taxpaying teams and to fund revenue sharing.
This is why we had a five-month lock-out? Because the Lakers aren't spending enough on player salaries?
This isn't highway robbery. It's a stick-up on the B&O Railroad.
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