Sunday, February 22, 2015

What to like about the Sixers

Some thoughts about the Sixers' extreme tank strategy post-trade deadline:


  • By dealing Michael Carter-Williams and KJ McDaniels, the Sixers appear to be punting forward on their strategy to tank, accumulate picks and develop young players. MCW was last season's rookie-of-the year and McDaniels, a 32nd overall pick in 2014, has shown flashes of athletic dominance that cast him as a rotation-calibre dunk-and-D wing, outshining his meagre draft position. 
  • Seemingly, MCW and KJMcD were two fourths of the players Philadelphia would want to 'build around' along with standout defender Nerlins Noel, and the injured centre, Joel Embid. If the Sixers were building a path back towards respectability, these four players appeared to be the cornerstones. 
  • So, then: why hit reset? Why cast out on draft gains for the chance to roll the dice again, possibly coming up with worse outcomes a year or two down the road?
This is why:
  • If we take the Moneyball approach to roster asset management, I think the Sixers' GM, Sam Hinkie, sees the undervalued asset in the NBA as a rival team's tolerance to get in, and stay in tank/re-build mode. While some bad teams (Lakers, Knicks, Kings, Nets) seem to badly mis-judge both their assets and how desirable they are as a playing location and other bad teams (Magic, TWolves, to a much lesser extent, the Bucks and Celtics) try to temper their tanking, pick acquisition with trades and signings of present-value NBA players to help them win games, the Sixers are the only team ready and willing to hold their noses and stay inside the strategy, however stinky it may be. Essentially, they are willing to play chicken with every other team's tolerance for abusing their fans' good will, trading respectability today for tomorrow. By not sucking out when the going gets tough or the young talent looks promising, they cull arbitrage from opponents' mushier fortitude.
  • If that is the strategy, how are the tactics supporting their aims?
  • First, while winning only 28 of their last 108 games must feel like torture to fans, the coach and ownership of the team, the Sixers have only been pursuing this strategy for the past 1.5 seasons. That's nothing to a Houston Astros fan. In the 2012-13 season, the team won 34 games and finished one spot out of the Eastern Conference playoffs. That team employed actual NBA players like Jrue Holliday, Thad Young, Spencer Hawes and Jason Richardson. Even this season, the Sixers are ahead of the pathetic Knicks, a team with real, expensive NBA players who expected to compete for a playoff spot.
  • Second, while MCW was a rookie-of-the-year winner, has tremendous length for a point guard (he's basically Kevin Martin's size) and is a skilled passer and athlete, his shooting is awful, awful, awful. Even accounting for the poor all-around offence the Sixers were putting on the court and the extra attention that might bring a lead guard, the wonky shot mechanics and the fact that MCW will be a geriatric 26 years' old when his next contract would start, you can understand why Hinkie might be willing to throw his Scrabble letters back in the velvet bag and see what comes out next. Point guard is a loaded position in the NBA currently; that isn't likely to change in the immediate and the price to trade back into an average-ish point guard is probably a slightly less valuable first rounder (like the one Phoenix received from the Celtics for Isaiah Thomas.)
  • Third, while KJMcD has shown flashes of 'something' I don't know if it's clear from half a rookie season that he's a long-term NBA asset. He might be, but to bank on it requires costly speculation. Because he was a second-round pick and signed a funky one year non-guaranteed tender, freeing him from the "Hinkie Special" that tries to lock second-round draft picks for longer periods of time in exchange for some guaranteed money, (Read more about it here) the Sixers will lose the inexpensive control they yield with most of their second-round picks, McDaniels will become a restricted free agent this summer and even with Gilbert Arenas rule restrictions, will probably end up with a head-scratchingly large contract from a team flush with cap space. Hinkie surely wants to incentivize players to sign his style of second-round contracts not the tender offer so it only makes sense that he jettisons non-complying players (and their agents) instead of playing ball.
  • Seeing as the Sixers are not close to competing while they wait for the development of their young front line, why contemplate throwing money at KJMcD or wait to pay MCW into his 30s? 
  • RealGM shows the astounding ledger of draft picks owed to the Sixers over the next six years. They are +10 in second-round picks -- all potential Hinkie Specials. They are also +3 or +4 in first-round picks including the newly-acquired Lakers pick which is likely to end up in the six or seventh overall range. 
  • Draft picks (especially first-rounders) are set to become even more valuable in the second half of this decade for a simple reason: the salary cap is set to explode in 2016, potentially rising 50% thanks to a lucrative new national TV rights deal; at the same time, the rookie scale salaries are set in stone until 2021 (or 2017 if one side opts out). This will minimize the per centage of the cap taken by a rookie contract and therefore raise the value of drafting and holding good, young rookies as the cap and scale continue to diverge. The three or four first owed to the Sixers come due in the next two drafts, setting them up to hold onto the value of those assets even if there is a CBA opt-out. Pretty genius, eh?
  • Hinkie can always cash his chips in, if he sees the opportunity. He is able to bid on any free agent -- and while Philadelphia may not be a first-tier destination, it's at least in the next tier (it wasn't that long ago they lured prize free agent Elton Brand from the Clippers). He can also package some of his picks with the offer of trade exceptions to take in contracts, big or small. He can continue to lend his cap sheet to other teams looking to unload contracts in exchange for second-round picks by operating far below the salary cap. Hell, he could stay far under the salary floor and pay his already-signed players the difference between his sheet and the floor (an interesting quirk in the CBA that would likely instill positive will with his roster). Holding onto MCW or KCMcD doesn't help any of that. 
  • I have no idea if Hinkie's strategy will pay off, ultimately. Drafting players who can contribute to wins in the NBA is difficult. Trying to roll those players into future opportunities for better contributors while navigating a draft lottery, 29 other team's strategies and inherent advantages and having lady luck land on your side seems downright impossible. This all may be for nothing. But, in reality, all the Sixers are risking is the slack tightening from fans' and ownership's patience. They can (and might, should Hinkie wear out his welcome) always jump back on the mediocrity treadmill. But, for now, why not gobble up the one asset no other NBA team is willing to wait for the right cost: patience.