The BC Autopsy 12-13: Being There

Draft 2012

Selected guard Terrence Ross (8th overall pick) and forwards Quincy Acy (37th overall pick) and Tomislav Zubcic (56th overall pick).


I’ll always temper my feelings about a rookie but I’ve found Terrence Ross completely underwhelming. Yes, he’s a terrific dunker and yes, he’s shown glimpses that he could develop reliable three-point range but nothing I’ve seen from him spells anything but “career backup.” That said, it might have just been a seven-deep draft (plus some promising play from Andre Drummond) and Toronto was simply outlucked. So be it. But for Bosh-sakes, let the kid play over Alan Anderson. He still has years to impress (and enrage me) and I’d be interested to know if he had trade value (dunking is fun!) and if so, they should probably capitalize sooner than later.


Quincy Acy has the best Raptor beard since Reggie Evans. I like beardy rebounders.


July 11 2012

Traded a future first-round pick and forward Gary Forbes to the Houston Rockets for guard Kyle Lowry, and signed guard Landry Fields to an offer sheet.


Though he’s halfway through his NBA career, the book is yet to be written about Kyle Lowry. From being thrown in as trade filler from Memphis and then mercilessly chained to bench in Houston in favour of Aaron Brooks, Lowry has never been respected as a point guard, despite upper-tier talent. He’s able to barrel to the bucket, run a fairly tight offence and hit threes while maintaining passable defence (he gambles too much for steals). But his shot selection is detrimental as is his sulky, exacerbated demeanour.


These faults hold the answer to why such a productive point guard was readily available for trade last summer. Despite the high price of a guaranteed-to-be quality draft pick (especially within this new CBA) Colangelo was able to upgrade the “second” point guard spot from the marginal Jerryd Bayless to the imposing Lowry without hamstringing flexibility or relying too heavily on a draft that may hold suspect talent. Lowry’s owed a combined $12 million this season and next -- a rare bargain for a non-rookie -- and he’s clearly in evaluation as the long-term solution at the point, with a probably expensive extension on the way.


I liked this trade very much. Though trading with Daryl Morey is never without fraught, it seemed clear that the Rockets were clearing salary in the hopes of picking up a big name (with the draft pick eventually moving to Oklahoma for the James Harden trade). Sure, we could quibble with the details of the departing pick but we’re not dicks, right?


Fields, it’s been reported, was signed to an offer sheet (as a restricted free agent) to trip up the Knicks while each team slap fought for the affections of Steve Nash (ha!) Looking at his numbers, you might be alarmed that he appears to be regressing from an impressive rookie year. But I liked this signing and didn’t think the price was outsized. The rebounding and passing are impressive and needed; his defence, while not out of this world, stands out on this Raptors team; but his shot is, well... shot, probably due to a wrist injury he sustained. If he’s able to make a full recovery (over the summer) this deal is back on track. If his wrist problems are chronic, he becomes an albatross. I have faith.


July 30 2012

Re-signed guard Alan Anderson.

July 27 2012

Signed guard John Lucas and re-signed center Aaron Gray.


“Good thing none of these fellows will be relied upon to play heavy minutes,” is something past us would say, exposing our quaint naivete.


October 17 2012

Exercised the contract option on forward Ed Davis through 2013-14.


Spoiler alert: this ends in heartbreak.


October 31 2012

Signed guard DeMar DeRozan to a contract extension.

While not quite as leading Bargnani’s extension a few years earlier, Colangelo matched the the market for DeMar DeRozan, giving him a four year/$40 million deal which landed him in salary territory with rising stars like Jrue Holiday and Ty Lawson. I would have thought, on the open market, DeMar might get a similar deal to (a more versatile performer in) Taj Gibson who’s deal was in the four year/$33 million range. But let’s not quibble. I think DeRozan’s greatest value is in what he could bring in a trade. Other teams may not realize (as Colangelo hasn’t) that he’s not a special player. His best qualities (slashing, getting to the line) are some of the more easier traits to replace with draftees, free agents or low level trades. O. J. Mayo signed a two year/$9 million deal with the Mavs last summer (though he has an opt out after one). I’d rather dangle DeMar to some desperate bubble team than commit long term to him, but, of course, I’m not Bryan Colangelo.


November 30 2012

Signed guard Mickael Pietrus and waived forward Dominic McGuire.


Special price on Pietrus 1’s.


January 30 2013

Traded forward Ed Davis and a second-round pick and cash to the Memphis Grizzlies for forward Rudy Gay and center Hamed Haddadi and traded guard Jose Manuel Calderon to the Detroit Pistons.


This is what we’ve been building to. Another, possibly final, re-fit, with Colangelo sending away a reliable and relied upon point guard and a forward on an upward trajectory are sent away for a volume shooter, paid exorbitantly for his PPG. My judgment may be too clouded to properly assess if there is another current player as divisive among lines of analytically-minded basketball observers and the casual or gutty stakeholder, who speaks to “athleticism” and “instinct to score” and various other intangible or misunderstood traits thought to merit $55 million for this and the next two years. That Gay turns over 11 shots a game is never factored into the occasion. That he absorbs ⅓ of the team’s salary cap space is for the nerds in accounting to worry about. Scorer = good. Star = good.


Calderon’s many faults are so beyond public, they’re chiseled onto the side of the CN Tower. But it’s hard to deny his impact--the shooting, passing and playcalling has been essential to any and every (small) run of success in the entire Colangelo era. He’s started every game since traded to Detroit and has shot an incredible .653 TS% for the Pistons (Gay's in Toronto? .486). Sure, he might be due for a pay decrease but there is a big market out there for his skills. Here are a few starting point guards starting for teams right now, all of which would love to sign Jose:

• Jeff Teague - ATL
• Kemba Walker - CHA
• Darren Collison - DAL
• Mo Williams - UTA
• Isaiah Thomas - SAC

Plus Detroit. Plus a dozen teams with cap space enough for a second or competing guard. Jose will take a pay cut in his next deal but it won’t be much.


And Ed? Cost controlled for two more years, he is a magnificent bargain. With Marc Gasol currently nursing a strained abdomen, Davis will get playing time and will impress people.


Grantland’s Zach Lowe had this to say about Toronto’s acquisition of Gay:


“But this isn’t the ideal way to build a team. That’s both easy to say and true. The ideal way to build a team is to either nail a top-3 pick or ace free agency. Toronto had its chance at the draft pick route in 2006, but had the poor luck of picking in a year with no Tim Duncan/Derrick Rose/Dwight Howard type at the top of everyone’s draft list. As for free agents, Toronto has basically no history of attracting real game-changers, who are tough to attract anyway, without Bird rights, beaches, or other game-changing stars already present.”


He was being nice.


Rumours abound that Rudy Gay is in line for an extension from the Raps just as soon as Colangelo is extended, himself. By 2014, Lowry with DeRozan and Gay will comprise more than ⅔ of the Raptors’ cap space. Essentially, this is your basketball team for the next half decade, barring an even more expensive firesale down the road. This is all you get with an indeterminate contribution from Valanciunas. Does Sam Presti look at this team and quibble? Would Daryl Morey pin his hopes to such severely flawed players with almost no hope for financial flexibility or upside? For all your Kaponos and O’Neals and Turkoglus, you circle back around to Rudy Gay. Yes, this is your team.

Coroner's Report (I mean, conclusion)

It’s both ironic and fitting that this week, the general manager that I am on record as speculating that he is a spy sent to destroy this team, strip it and ship its parts to Las Vegas is also presiding over the most sophisticated basketball analysis project since James Naismith decided to keep score. That the Raptors are capable of, simultaneously, incredible innovation and regressive, anachronistic teamcraft speaks to the very essence of what this team has represented for the past seven years (and the 11 before that, to be fair): they are neither committed nor capable of winning yet they cannot power down to reassess and rebuild. They hand out lavish contracts as a vote of confidence to inconsequential talent, then expensively trade that talent on a whim. They avoid the draft whenever possible yet show the kind of commitment to a few of their draft picks to the detriment of all else. This Raptors team may be both in possession of the finest secrets to winning basketball games ever assembled while fielding a team incapable of hearing the message. Even the fans, loyal and present, have only ever shown a collective ability to do one thing -- boo departed stars.


I like to joke about how the Blue Jays appear in so many baseball movies (I’m talking the Major Leagues(s), Little Big League, etc.) as montage opponents while the protagonist team finally “puts it together” in the films’ second acts. Essentially, these fictional Jays were a team full of extras. Their purpose was just to “be there” like a mogul or a pylon. Though I don’t think expansion had touched down at Pearson at the time of Celtic Pride or Eddie, it is Toronto’s basketball team that has carried on the spirit of merely existing as a tiny hurdle in others’ narratives.


And, therefore, being a Raptor fan takes on a certain surreal quality. It’s like being a fan of that indie band that was never cool to begin with. It’s like playing the Shepherd in the Christmas play. It’s like being Jesse Heiman. And nothing is going to change this strange reality; nothing except winning (and winning and winning). Not a Steve Nash patriotic homecoming; not a flashy, $20 million forward; not even a display of technological wizardry resigned to be ignored by the guttiness of careerist journeymen players and coaches. It’s everything. Putting it all together: the players and the plays. It’s recognizing value then maximizing it. It’s asking “what else can we do?” not in exacerbation but because there’s always another angle and another edge. It’s time to bring in the wins. And it’s time to roll over this Colangelo guy, roll up our sleeves and roll through the NBA. Let’s roll.

N.B. Thank you for reading The B.C. Autopsy. I hope it was as therapeutic for you to read as it was for me to write. Thanks to zgall1 for suggesting this project. If you need me, I’ll be in my happy place. No one can hurt me there.

The BC Autopsy 11-12: Look Out, it’s the Lockout

If you were to believe the NBA owners that the league was in dire fiscal straits, then you would also have to believe that part of the impetus to put clamps down on the kinds of contracts general managers could hand over to players was, in part, to curtail the consequences of Bryan Conagelo’s ineptitude. As well, Otis Smith’s, Rod Thorn’s, David Kahn’s, Ed Stefanski’s, Billy King’s and for chrissakes, whatever elite, ultra-exclusive embezzlement charity Isiah Thomas was running for Knicks players.

There isn’t a tonne to say on behalf of Raptor decisionmaking and the lockout besides this: the rules stemming from the new CBA are noticeably more stringent and more punishing to expensive mistakes and that I severely overestimated the impact of the amnesty provision, also known as “oops.” In theory, any new system that introduced chaos or cost-cutting or panic due to complexity would be good for a rudderless, momentumless, afterthought of a team like Toronto’s. They were losing the game so why not flip over the table and walk away?

(The answer: because your leader is playing checkers at a chess tournament).

June 21 2011
Named Dwane Casey head coach.
June 1 2011
Named Jay Triano special assistant to the president and general manager.
A few moves pre-lockout. Triano was fired (up) to manager while former Mavs assistant (and T-Wolves head) Casey was put in place. I never feel qualified to evaluate coaches. I believe, generally, they are much less important to the outcome than conventional wisdom purports. But they are less patsy-like than, say, baseball managers. I thought Triano did an admirable job, especially once Bosh left and the team was left with an absurdly talent-poor team. I’m not sure if we can blame him for how much he played Andrea Bargnani (especially over rookie Ed Davis) but he, at least, recognized he was sporting some of the worst defensive NBA talent ever assembled and took calculated risks like showing hard zones often and drumming up a pack-the-paint prevent that gave up a nauseating 37.6% from the three point line (28th in the league) but, hey, he had to try something unconventional. There was an impression of Triani being, sort of, kind of... meek. Like he was a substitute teacher over an unruly class of misfits. Whether true or not, he was perceptually different than Sam Mitchell who came across as confrontational and lacking in the cerebral elements of game and roster management.

On many nights, I feel as though Casey is a watered down version of his last two predecessors. He appears to run dogmatically rigid defensive sets, like Triano, which is probably a good thing. He also seems to (attempt to) make statements with wonky rotations that may be due to stubbornness but could also be plain lack-of-strategy. I like to look at a few situations when I am eyeballing a coach: inbounds plays, end-of-quarters/games, two-for-ones, foul management. This current season, at least, I haven’t seen anything exemplary in these situations. Maybe I’m being intractable or projecting my frustrations over the talent deficiency or the result of 50/50 decisions going the other way or maybe Casey is a below average coach. Couple that with an aimless team and a maniacally wayward GM, and you have a recipe for a big ol’ poo sandwich.

No, I don’t think coaching is the biggest or even a top five concern but with certified coaches, like Stan Van Gundy and Nate McMillan out there, it’s hard not to intimate that an outside-the-cap move like bringing in a better coach might be worth a few wins.

Draft 2011
Selected center Jonas Valanciunas (5th overall pick).

We (I) have to stop and remember the 2000, 2006, 2009 and 2011 draft every time we (I) go off about the cap value of draft picks. Even the insanely team-friendly structure of how rookies get paid in the modern NBA can’t combat a bag-of-stink draft. While it’s much too early to properly evaluate the ‘11 draft, the only sure thing to emerge, so far, is #1, Kyrie Irving. There were some steals in the late first round, including Kawhi Leonard at #15 and Kenneth Farreid at #22, but lottery picks like #2 Derrick Williams, #6 Jan Vessely, #7 Bismack Biyombo, and so on and so forth and Jimmer Fredette have yet to prove they belong on NBA rosters, let alone All Star teams. Fortuitous then, that the Raptors chose Valanciunas, the Lithuanian big man with the #5 pick. I’d bet if the draft was done over again, JV goes #2. Not only is he an intriguing prospect who’s shown flashes of deep talent (amid natural rookie mistakes and hesitancy), Colangelo (praise alert) was in the position to keep the big man in Europe during the lockout, ensuring playing time in a pro league and delaying the deployment of his rookie scale contract.

Whether he turns into something or not, Jonas is an asset. Good for you, Bryan Colangelo. I would have been very happy with an Ed Davis/Valanciunas starting line for the next decade.

June 27 2011
Tendered a qualifying offer to guard Sonny Weems.

I, literally, have no recollection of this happening. I guess this offer wasn’t for as many litas as Sonny thought he deserved.

December 9 2011
Signed center Jamaal Magloire.

Canadian!

December 11 2011
Signed center Aaron Gray.

Big white dude!

March 15 2012
Traded guard Leandrinho Barbosa to the Indiana Pacers for a second-round pick and cash to Toronto.

A money dump to officially end the trail of Hedo. The pick was used on this gentleman.

March 26 2012
Signed guards Ben Uzoh and Alan Anderson to a 10-day contract.

Alan Anderson is like that friend who asks if he can crash on your couch “for a day or two” and sticks around for a year-and-a-half. A 30-year-old, below replacement shooter who can’t really shoot, his continued presence and considerable playing time is a testament to both how awful the Raptors are and their inability to recognize talent.

April 27 2012
Exercised the contract option on head coach Dwane Casey through 2013-14.

It’s a little bit interesting that Colangelo extended Casey to 2014 when his own deal comes due in 2013. I don’t know what it means but it means something.

The Raptors won a surpising 22 games in the 66 game lockout season. The combination of Davis/the Johnsons, Amir and James show that it is possible to win games with defence. With only Kleiza and Bargnani tipping the “overpaid” scale (and either of them subject to amnesty) and a few interesting and promising pieces, the Raptors could have finally cleared house, turned a new chapter and other, glorious cliches on their way to actually building a sustainable, improvable basketball team. Will they? Won’t they? (They won’t).

The BC Autopsy 10-11: Talents Taken

July 6 2010
Signed forward Ed Davis.
Draft 2010
Selected forward Ed Davis (13th overall pick).

If we’re allowing ourselves to take a warm, steaming dump on Bryan Colangelo’s aimless aversion to scouting and drafting, a self-aggrandizing, echo chamber-rattling position that rivals the worst cases of headstrong egoism, then we have to give praise when its due. Ed Davis! I won’t say that I loved Davis from the start but I did watch him improve on every NBA skill in his two-plus seasons. Yes, he still got backed down with ease by larger post players. Yes, his outside shot was not there. But he had the rare rebounding ability where he was both positionally sound and athletic enough to jump and battle for them. He scores from close range and avoids the urge to take long jumpers. And he has tremendously quick hands that he uses to bother offensive matchups, though it’s yet to lead to a passing game. He improved every season and made a paltry $2.2 million this season on his rookie scale. I chose to pretend Bargnani and Ed’s salaries were reversed so I could sleep at night.

I was completely satisfied with an Amir Johnson/Ed Davis power forward lineup. I miss him every day. ED!!!!!!!

July 8 2010
Re-signed forward Amir Johnson, signed forward Linas Kleiza to an offer sheet and signed center Solomon Alabi.

Colangelo got skewered for re-signing Amir Johnson for this 5 year/$30 million extension. Scott Carefoot tackled some of it here. Johnson has more than earned this paycheque. That he is not a 17 point-a-game scorer belies a general ignorance about what wins basketball games. That he’s mostly come off the bench is a product of whatever magical fairy dust Colangelo believes Andrea Bargnani is made of. To answer Bill Simmons’ question: would I rather employ Amir Johnson or Michael Beasley? You can have your knee rubber.

As for Linas Kleiza, Colangelo showed he was incapable of doing three things right, in a row. After a few... I wouldn’t say promising... but respectable years playing garbage time while Carmelo Anthony drank his Gatorade in Denver, Kleiza skipped out to Europe for 2009-2010, seemingly moving on the next stage in his career. Inexplicably, Colangelo not only lured back the restricted free agent, but showered him with a 4 year/$18 million offer sheet, to which the Nuggets responded with a “HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA LOL LOL LOL ROFL LOL.” Kleiza’s been a lumbering, bad-shooting, no-defence, gimpy pylon ever since and, at one point, made me seriously ponder if there was someone more deserving of an amnesty than No Mago. Dark times, bro. Kleiza has a player option for next year and if you’re reading this and you happen to be Mr. Blond, please find Linas and persuade him to take his talents to Bakersfield.

July 9 2010
Signed forward Chris Bosh and traded him to the Miami Heat for two first-round picks in 2011 and a trade exception.

We’ve already talked about Chris’ departure. But the mechanics of the leave, through a sign-and-trade were much contested by the chatterers. The assumption was that, in retrospect, everyone knew Bosh would bolt so why not trade him mid-season? The answer is that the value of a a rent-a-player, even one as good as Bosh, was not higher than the return of draft picks the Raptors’ had previously sent in the O’Neal trade. This is even more true if you believe the Miami union was pre-ordained and, therefore, the receiving team would have had no chance to re-sign Bosh.

“What about the Carmelo Anthony trade?” you ask. Well, there were multiple differentiating factors.

1. the Knicks did not have cap space and were therefore less flexible than Miami to absorb max contracts.
2. Melo was facing an NBA lockout where there was sure to be clamp downs on max salaries, max years and trade flexibility that could limit his earning potential should have have gone into free agency in 2011.

In a perfect and just world, maybe Bird Rights wouldn’t be so easily transferable through sign-and-trades and therefore, there’d be additional barriers for players wanting to leave in free agency. But, then again, why shouldn't have Bosh signed where he wanted and why not, at least, should the Raptors receive (back) a pick for the trouble.

July 14 2010
Traded forward Hedo Turkoglu to the Phoenix Suns for guard Leandro Barbosa and center Dwayne Jones.

The latest in Colangelo’s signature move of trading away a player he brought in with fanfare (Kapono, O’Neal) and expecting (and mostly receiving) hero's praise. For a declining player, the Raptors received a declined player, but one who made less money and for less years. To think that Turk’s contract still has another year after this (though I’m sure the Magic will exercise their early termination option) it boggles and scrabbles and monopolizes the mind how much money he will have made in the NBA.

November 20 2010
Traded guards Jarrett Jack and Marcus Banks and center David Andersen to the New Orleans Hornets for guard Jerryd Bayless and forward Peja Stojakovic.

This was a salary dump, though buoyed by Jarrett’s early season shooting slump (slumpier than usual). Finally, Marcus Banks, the fat contract and fat body throw-in from the O’Neal for Marion trade, was gone, after stealing $9 million or so from Raptor benefactors. In return, Colangelo got 22 minutes from Peja before buying him out so he could help the Mavericks win the NBA championships, his the gigantic expiring contract and an underwhelming back up, Jerryd Bayless.

February 22 2011
Traded a first-round pick to the Chicago Bulls for forward James Johnson.

It’s funny (not ‘ha ha’ funny but ‘sigh’ funny) that post-lockout, you couldn't have bought a first round pick for Luol Deng but way back in the hazy days of early-2011, James Johnson was the going rate. I had a soft spot for Johnson’s defensive pressure but he’s currently wasting away on the Sacramento bench and it’s hard to make the case his acquisition was worth the price. NB: when he was traded to the Kings, the Raptors received a second round pick. You know you’re Bryan Colangelo when you’re trading a first for a second.

The BC Autopsy: Chris Bosh Interlude

To say that the summer of 2010, in NBA circles, was dominated by LeBron James is like saying the early 40s were dominated by World War 2. “Domination” is not a strong enough word. It was -- annihilated. In most senses, there was no NBA outside of James and his infamously, heinously mishandled exit from Ohio to Florida. In retrospect, the shock and fury was overblown; the angry mobs misguided; the “Heat Index” destined to cool. But if we've jumped into the Autopsy Time Machine™ back to July 2010, then we've landed in the middle of a chaos that was sure to realign the power structure of the NBA. We were never going to be the same.

Of course, there was another player of (some significance) who flapped his snowbird wings and flew south (and I don’t mean Mike Miller). Chris Bosh, after years of existential speculation, extradited himself from the orbit of this Raptor team. The most productive player in its history (shots fired, Vince) was gone.

Can you believe that I never really thought he would? Not for some naive sense of loyalty but because I assumed the money issues, and the lingering concern that Bosh was only as good as a big fish in a small pond, would scare him into taking Toronto’s lottery ticket. Hell, he could always whine until he was unceremoniously traded to the Nets for a package of scrubs.

I was wrong. And I got sad (but only briefly). Not for the expulsion of talent as the Raptors have managed to admirably soldier on with a committee of power forwards since. But, because whether his intentions were true and good or reasonable and fiduciary, I had some notion that (okay, this was naive) to be a real franchise, one with reverence and tradition and history and perennialism, we (I know, I know) needed a careerist. Our Reggie Miller or Tim Duncan or Kobe Bryant or Larry Bird or Magic or Jordan (more or less). Someone with the possibility to go to the Hall of Fame in an awful purple jersey.

But I got over it, and quickly, because I realized that a fairly good player making a lot of money then leaving for more money was actually a low impact concern, considering the history of this team and this GM. I’d take a hundred Bosh exits if it avoided one Jermaine O’Neal or Bargnani extension or l’affaire Turkoglu. Here was an opportunity to cut costs, invest in the draft and starve themselves of the idiot’s fallback plan: to spend contender money on a 35 win team.

Chris Bosh’s exit was not a cause of the Raptors past or current woes. It wasn't even a symptom. That I only spent a week dwelling on this supposed affront and betrayal before ultimately shrugging it off? That was the symptom.